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Surprised nobody has said a peep about this. Surely people would have been interesting this as a 'recovery' play, post pandemic? Bombardier is both sensitive to airline sector conditions, and financing conditions. Both have been steadily improving.

BBD.B just went above $1. Since my post with the chart above at 0.60, it's now up 70%
Well BBD is a good bet, if you think that Trudeau will give a pile of handouts to a politically connected Quebec business.
But they've proven to be consistently unable to run the company without those handouts.

I think COVID might be a good cover for another handout or two, but I'm not putting my money on that.
 

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Well BBD is a good bet, if you think that Trudeau will give a pile of handouts to a politically connected Quebec business.
But they've proven to be consistently unable to run the company without those handouts.

I think COVID might be a good cover for another handout or two, but I'm not putting my money on that.
I think that's a bit of a politically cynical view. Bombardier relies on junk debt markets, and those markets are extremely generous right now. To some extent, Bombardier has already been bailed out by the US Federal Reserve.

As far as I can tell, Bombardier's financial condition is rapidly improving (compared to the near-death situation a year ago) thanks to easy availability of corporate credit.

In any case, I still think Bombardier will have very long-term problems, but my time horizon for this trade is roughly 1 year. I am speculating here.
 

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As far as I can tell, Bombardier's financial condition is rapidly improving (compared to the near-death situation in 2020) thanks to easy availability of corporate credit.

In any case, I still think Bombardier will have very long-term problems, but my time horizon for this trade is roughly 1 year.
I think selling the train business allows management to focus. They used the cash to pay down debt, and now have one straight forward business instead of two unrelated businesses and a collection of former train manufacturers spread around the world. A world class product (Global Express) they can ramp production and scale.

As they improve efficiency, and if they reach CF+ next year as forecast, it will likely rerate higher. I acknowledge the debt load is not insignificant and reaching cash flow positive is a key milestone.
 

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I think that's a bit of a politically cynical view. Bombardier relies on junk debt markets, and those markets are extremely generous right now. To some extent, Bombardier has already been bailed out by the US Federal Reserve.

As far as I can tell, Bombardier's financial condition is rapidly improving (compared to the near-death situation a year ago) thanks to easy availability of corporate credit.

In any case, I still think Bombardier will have very long-term problems, but my time horizon for this trade is roughly 1 year. I am speculating here.
Canada has given Bombardier over $4B

The market cap is sitting around $2.5B
We're flushing money down the drain.

But what's a few billion dollars when it gets votes.


yeah, that's politically cynical, but can you put a different spin on it?
We're giving these jokers billions.
 

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Surprised nobody has said a peep about this. Surely people would have been interesting this as a 'recovery' play, post pandemic? Bombardier is both sensitive to airline sector conditions, and financing conditions. Both have been steadily improving.

BBD.B just went above $1. Since my post with the chart above at 0.60, it's now up 70%
I decided against buying it. These are the reasons:

  • business risk augmented, their activity is only business jets now, very niche
  • the history or false promises and bad management
  • pandemic still raging worldwide (hard to believe rich people and corporations will buy private jets in the next year or two)
  • attractive buying opportunity I guess but just cannot see it go over 1.25$
 

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  • business risk augmented, their activity is only business jets now, very niche
  • the history or false promises and bad management
  • pandemic still raging worldwide (hard to believe rich people and corporations will buy private jets in the next year or two)
  • attractive buying opportunity I guess but just cannot see it go over 1.25$
Those are sensible reasons as well
 

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I dumped my position and got out of Bombardier. I think it was a good speculation, and I significantly outperformed the index over the brief period.

However with the strong performance of Canadian equities, I've ended up way overweight Canadian stocks and I think this is just too speculative a position.
 

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Still holding preferred shares. Also significantly outperformed in the past 12 months, while paying a dividend. Continue to see improved potential over the next year to 18 monhts as they de lever and improve cash flow. That said, I completely understand your assessment of the common shares.
 
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