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The whales manipulated the price up to $44,000 and now they are selling a bunch of coins and shearing the sheep.

When the price tumbles to the point they don't want to sell any more coins, they will remove them from the market "sell" side and start manipulating the price up again. To increase the price they go on a promotional pump tour of the internet. Rinse and repeat........

That is what happens when you have a handful of people with a big pile of bitcoins on one side and people desperate to buy a sliver of a bitcoin on the other.

The unregulated exchanges make it all possible.

Bitcoins ran up to $44,000 based on no reason. They have touched down to $30,000 for no reason. The decline will stop when the whales decide it will.

It is all manipulation and a scam.

 

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If Berkshire A shares bounced around from $350,000 down to $275,000 and then back up to $325,000 with no news.........the regulators would cease trading and take a look. Investors would want an explanation. The bitcoin price is bouncing around $2-3K in a minute due to supply and demand controlled by the whales and promoted speculation.
 

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"whales" - why people think that the whales are going buy Bitcoin at any price in endless quantities and never sell is beyond me. Hedge funds and other institutions in Bitcoin will flee if they think they can't make money faster than you can blink your eye, literallly, since most of them are going to be algorithmic. "these pension funds are suckers and will have to buy in and I'll sell my bitcoin to them when it reaches $250,000 USD". Wow. I have heard similar quotes from multiple people who I know have more money than they should in Bitcoin.
 

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Long time holders cashing out isn't manipulation. Whales aren't all acting in unison either. Some guys on here love their conspiracy theories a bit too much.

Anyway, I'm a long time holder who has been making sells since 18K... average sell price just over 29K. We'll see if this dip is temporary or not.. if not, will aim to start slowly buying back in at around 24K. If the bubble continues, will resume selling if it goes over 40K again.
 

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Here is a conspiracy theory.......from a well known bitcoin promoter.

Banks don’t like bitcoin because it makes them less relevant, so you are seeing their attempted manipulation over the weekend. #bitcoin $250 k by end of 2022, or early 2023.
— Tim Draper (@TimDraper)
January 11, 2021
 

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Interesting that threads are now popping up with people complaining they can't log in to sell their coins or make cash withdrawals on some exchanges.

Here is a thread on Coinbase. Kraken and others are also mentioned.

 

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Discussion Starter #69
You say you paid $300 "a few years ago" and now your position is worth $1000 or a 233.33% gain. How does that compare to your other investments? If Bitcoin was beating everything else by a wide margin I think I would be adding to my position not lightening up. I wouldn't sell until it started to drop.
It's certainly a good gain. But the difference vs my other speculations is that I think BTC is fundamentally worthless, at its core.

I could have similarly bought $300 of some random penny stock a few years ago and seen a big gain. Does that make it a good investment? No.

BTC is also about 100x more volatile than my typical investments. Even if I believed in the long term prospects of it, the fact it's 100x more volatile would also require it to be a much smaller position than other things.
 

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Discussion Starter #71
Even though I don't believe this, let's assume for a moment that BTC does have fundamental value and will be a viable long-term investment. You might ask: how large should the position be in your portfolio?

I'll show the risk weighting method that Ray Dalio & Bridgewater use in their "risk parity" method. First one looks at the standard deviation of the asset classes. I got these from Portfolio Visualizer
SD 8% for bonds
SD 16% for stocks
SD 20% for gold
SD 81% for bitcoin ... 10x the risk of bonds

Based on this, one can now figure out the asset class weights which equalizes their volatility levels. Here's the result I calculated. Note that this was numerically calculated based on "risk parity" portfolio design:

21113
 

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It's certainly a good gain. But the difference vs my other speculations is that I think BTC is fundamentally worthless, at its core.

I could have similarly bought $300 of some random penny stock a few years ago and seen a big gain. Does that make it a good investment? No.

BTC is also about 100x more volatile than my typical investments. Even if I believed in the long term prospects of it, the fact it's 100x more volatile would also require it to be a much smaller position than other things.
When the paddy wagon comes everyone goes, good or bad. Fundamentally worthless is my opinion of stocks. Not literally but the market is overbought by any rational measure and overdue for a correction. When the next bear hits I don't want to be long stocks. That is why I trade.
 

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Discussion Starter #74
I've read on a Radio-Canada (in French) that each cryptocurrency transaction must be listed because each transaction is taxable.
Well yeah, these are securities transactions in a non registered account. You have to track your ACB and report capital gains and losses.
 

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Well yeah, these are securities transactions in a non registered account. You have to track your ACB and report capital gains and losses.
I just guess that some people will take a hit by the CRA if they didn't do their homeworks properly during this bubble.

I know that's the same thing with any holdings in non-registered accounts, but I guess some people have basic investments where all those homeworks are done for them, but then they start buying cryptocurrencies for fun without tracking their transactions.
 

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Even though I don't believe this, let's assume for a moment that BTC does have fundamental value and will be a viable long-term investment. You might ask: how large should the position be in your portfolio?
What is the fundamental value of gold?

I'm not a fan of BTC or Gold. Both are just stores of value based on scarcity. Neither provide any real utility

Newer blockchains can provide a lot of utility though
 

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Interesting that threads are now popping up with people complaining they can't log in to sell their coins or make cash withdrawals on some exchanges.

Here is a thread on Coinbase. Kraken and others are also mentioned.
The exchanges get overloaded just like in 2017. Google searches for crypto are spiking higher than 2017 right now

I recently opened a Kraken account because the fees appear lower than Coinbase. They locked my account when my IP address changed. After I submitted a form they locked withdrawals for a period. This is fine imo. I now have FIDO U2F setup with a hardware wallet which is far more secure than any Canadian brokerage/bank

I noticed Coinbase had issues a few times this year like in March (but so did Questrade and many other brokerages!)
 

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Crypto tax laws are confusing.

Lets say I convert some CDN to USD, I then buy something. I pay and claim no gains on the currency conversion
Lets say I convert come BTC to LTC, I then buy something, I should still pay or claim no gains on the conversion.
If I move come currency from one wallet I own to another, no taxable transaction has taken place IMO.


If you consider crypto a currency
If I shuffle it back and forth and make a gain, I have to claim it as a capital gain.

Myself I have full records for the amount paid, and I haven't sold, so I don't have anything to claim yet.
 

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Crypto tax laws are confusing.

Lets say I convert some CDN to USD, I then buy something. I pay and claim no gains on the currency conversion
Lets say I convert come BTC to LTC, I then buy something, I should still pay or claim no gains on the conversion.
If I move come currency from one wallet I own to another, no taxable transaction has taken place IMO.


If you consider crypto a currency
If I shuffle it back and forth and make a gain, I have to claim it as a capital gain.

Myself I have full records for the amount paid, and I haven't sold, so I don't have anything to claim yet.
Exactly, I think that's where it becomes tricky. Not sure where cryptocurrencies stand.
 
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