[MrBlackhill]

Limits adoption to people who are interested in using it, which is fine.
Many people don't adopt large numbers of things, for a long time many things we think of basic were not used by most people, and often were mocked.

True. It fits with this curve shown as an argument from disruptive innovation investors.

 

[james4beach]

Many people don't adopt large numbers of things, for a long time many things we think of basic were not used by most people, and often were mocked.

You're neglecting to mention that many people don't jump on board with fads and hype, things which turn out to fizzle and disappear. There is a good reason to be skeptical about grand claims that "everything is different now".

Not every new technology or exciting thing you hear about will turn out to have lasting power.

Do you remember how popular emerging market stocks were a decade ago? Analysts in the media were constantly talking about how the future is in emerging market investment, and tons of ETFs appeared for them. There are some people who started loading big emerging mkt positions into their portfolios (and have been pushing them ever since!)

From 2002-2008, EEM was up over 300%, doing much better than US stocks (which were going nowhere). At the time it looked like it was going to be the future. I remember many guests on CNBC and RobTV/BNN heavily pushing the emerging market investment story.

The crypto coinz are really just another kind of stock, except it's not a stock (and is unregulated), but in people's minds, it's the same thing as a speculative stock.

 

[MrMatt]

You're neglecting to mention that many people don't jump on board with fads and hype, things which turn out to fizzle and disappear. There is a good reason to be skeptical about grand claims that "everything is different now".

Not every new technology or exciting thing you hear about will turn out to have lasting power.

Do you remember how popular emerging market stocks were a decade ago? Analysts in the media were constantly talking about how the future is in emerging market investment, and tons of ETFs appeared for them. There are some people who started loading big emerging mkt positions into their portfolios (and have been pushing them ever since!)

From 2002-2008, EEM was up over 300%, doing much better than US stocks (which were going nowhere). At the time it looked like it was going to be the future. I remember many guests on CNBC and RobTV/BNN heavily pushing the emerging market investment story.

The crypto coinz are really just another kind of stock, except it's not a stock (and is unregulated), but in people's minds, it's the same thing as a speculative stock.

I've mentioned earlier that I don't see the value in bitcoin so I don't own any.
I've also remarked often, in this thread, that I'm okay being late to the party if it turns out good.
I've saved far more money than I've lost waiting until I understand.

Yes I remember how popular emerging markets stocks were a decade ago, I bought Unilever to avoid all the problems with emerging market economies.

I'm not a mind reader, and I honestly don't care what's in other peoples minds.
I buy on my understanding of value.

I agree, many people think that crypto or gold or a stock or a bond is all "speculative", where they think it's an asset and you hope it goes up in value.
I think considering blockchain related technologies "currencies" or "investments" is shortsighted and misses the point.

I think we can all agree that Battery powered Electric cars look like the future today.
But you have to realize that many if not most of the pioneers in this space were never commercial success and none of them exist in their original form today.

I remember when people thought computers were a gimmick, and cell phones and the internet and PDAs and digital cameras and so many other technologies it isn't funny.

To me it is obvious and clear that there is a future in Blockchain related technologies.
It's also obvious to me that much of the stuff being promoted is crap that won't stand the test of time.


Lastly Blockchains are incredibly tightly regulated. They're just not regulated by a particular national governmental organization.

 

[james4beach]

I think we can all agree that Battery powered Electric cars look like the future today.

Sure, but that doesn't mean it's a good idea to buy TSLA, NIO or PLUG. For all we know, the traditional auto makers may the best performing stocks going forward a long time, and they certainly will use the same technologies.

I think it's very hard to trade or do any kind of adaptive capital allocation based on these themes and "the world is changing" stories.

Future in blockchain? Hey sure maybe, but you probably get enough exposure through the S&P 500 with its massive weights in Amazon, Microsoft, etc.

I still remember when BRIC was supposed to be the future of everything. Quick, everyone, buy BRIC before you miss your chance.

The reality is that when these "new things" become significant economic forces, all kinds of major companies end up with exposure, and profit from it. I would still argue that the broad indexes like the S&P 500 and TSX Composite will have the best long term returns (10+ years) and beat the traders who attempt to use sector or theme ETFs.

 

[MrMatt]

The reality is that when these "new things" become significant economic forces, all kinds of major companies end up with exposure, and profit from it. I would still argue that the broad indexes like the S&P 500 and TSX Composite will have the best long term returns (10+ years) and beat the traders who attempt to use sector or theme ETFs.

Sure, but core & explore has been an outstanding strategy for myself.

Take that index portfolio, add in a few small positions that turn out to be 5x-10x's and you can be very happy.
I've put maybe 5-10% of my portfolio in higher risk stuff, which has worked out very very well for me.

 

[james4beach]

Take that index portfolio, add in a few small positions that turn out to be 5x-10x's and you can be very happy.
I've put maybe 5-10% of my portfolio in higher risk stuff, which has worked out very very well for me.

Glad it worked for you, but it did not work well for me. Energy is the most striking example and I bet many here on CMF experienced this. Back around 2005, I was overweight energy. For a while I was long XEG and Suncor. This seemed great for a few years, but the rally fizzled out.

I don't think trading/speculating on individual sectors is a great idea. They are volatile and may not remain strong.

This chart shows XEG versus the TSX Composite. I think this is a good lesson ... betting on the energy sector seemed like a big win for the first 5 years, and still seemed OK at 9 years.

Others have experienced similar things trying to speculate in mining stocks, marijuana, and biotech.

 

[james4beach]

Down 11% today. Wow, what a crazy ETF.

This is going to become a favourite for gamblers. Very high volume (5 million shares) and I saw bid/ask spreads as thin as 1 or 2 cents.

 

[m3s]

I notice the number of BTC per share they post daily is drifting. Hard to say how bad that is and if it corrects unless someone records it every day

$564M AUM reported yesterday so could be $1B before long?

 

[off.by.10]

I notice the number of BTC per share they post daily is drifting. Hard to say how bad that is and if it corrects unless someone records it every day

I don't know how much change you've seen but it should be slowly reduced by the fund's MER over time, no?

 

[m3s]

I don't know how much change you've seen but it should be slowly reduced by the fund's MER over time, no?

Makes sense. I'll post this here to see

BTCC.U ETF (USD)
Shares per BTC: 5,258.789
BTC per Share: 0.00019016

BTCC.B ETF (CAD) Non-FX Hedged
Shares per BTC: 6,676.83
BTC per Share: 0.00014977

 

[james4beach]

This could turn into an extremely exciting ETF. It's gonna be party central.

Day traders might get into this. The spreads are tight, and it can move a huge amount in a day. That's what active traders want... imagine that TQQQ and HMMJ had a baby.

 

[MrMatt]

This could turn into an extremely exciting ETF. It's gonna be party central.

Day traders might get into this. The spreads are tight, and it can move a huge amount in a day. That's what active traders want... imagine that TQQQ and HMMJ had a baby.

If enough day traders will get in there, it might actually stabilize

 

[andrewf]

The volatility is in the underlying, no? Or are we observing big deviations from intraday NAV?

 

[MrMatt]

The volatility is in the underlying, no? Or are we observing big deviations from intraday NAV?

I think as more day traders get into bitcoin, the volitility of bitcoin will drop.
There are still a lot of arbitrage opportunities in crypto markets.

 

[m3s]

BiTBO shows the BTCC.U premium at about 1% now. Already much lower than the GBTC premium that a lot of Americans use

EBIT is also there but no calculated premium yet

 

[MrBlackhill]

What about QTBC?

I never took time to read why BTCC is considered the first BTC ETF when there was QBTC already.

Not sure why QBTC has 1.95% fees while BTCC has 1% and EBIT has 0.75%.

 

[MrBlackhill]

Haha... Just noted that on Evolve website for EBIT, there's a link to "Bitcoin Explained". I was expecting some well-documented explanation, but instead I stumbled upon this:

BITCOIN EXPLAINED (BC Explained ep 1)

"We all have a crypto-friend who sounds like this guy. Gold back in 698BC was no different..."____________________________Like our stuff? Want us to make mor...

www.youtube.com

 

[sags]

I bought some BTCC shares today for $9.41 per share. It is less than the IPO price.

I was going to play the online slots but stuck some money in this instead. Same result probably.......

 

[Jimmy]

HIVE Blockchain was pounded yesterday ~ 28% so I bought a little. Everyone seems to be adopting the concept of crypto currencies from the banks to companies like SQ and Tesla.

 

[l1quidfinance]

Time for a little speculative spice in the portfolio so I purchased a little BTCC today.