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Discussion Starter #1
It would seem the bears are finished, the shorts are being destroyed, the base is being overrun, commodities are going sky high, overbought doesn't matter, we are on our way. Step back to early summer and deflation is here and the bulls are finished and their base is all but done.

It looks like a smaller version of the internet late 1999 coming out here, destroying the bears before they are right. I don't know about you but the best suck in is to have everyone believe before the next leg down. And to tell you the truth I have been knocked out of a small pilot short position in here.

Dumb money is the most powerful money out there and just because it is dumb doesn't mean that the weight of it can't squash you.
 

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Discussion Starter #3
Slacker I have been looking at VXX for a play here and may enter in at any time here. I feel a pull back coming into October that will be later bought and pushed again by the dumb money to a frenzy high into 2011. A lot of people feel they missed the train and are now going to wait for a nice pullback before pilling in.
 

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Discussion Starter #5
I should say the dumb money is the money directed at commodities pushing them to parabolic highs. A lot of these people are not dumb and are just taking a ride to collect that free money. But that is the term everyone uses for this kind of money. I would not consider the money people put out to buy JNJ as dumb for example, unless everyone and there dog chased it to ridiculous highs for no good reason.

Of course if the Fed does actually QE without any care for inflation or the dollar going to zero then commodities will have been a very good bet. With the way the Fed is talking at this time you never can be sure.
 

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@dogcom: I traded in and out of VXX 4 or 5 times a few months ago, when every other day was good news and bad news. I think I broke even on the trades, but wasted a bunch of trading commission. Good luck.

PS: if you're in Canada, make sure to trade TSE:VXX, not NYSE:VXX. I made that mistake easlier...
 

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No market timing for me. I set my asset allocation, choose my investments and then stay invested through thick and thin.

I'll leave the market timing to the 'smart' folks!!:(
 

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Discussion Starter #8
I keep a core position and keep the rest in cash. I wouldn't really call it market timing with the 15 percent I use to play into positions that are very oversold and starting to recover. I put in a small position today into VXX Canada today and thanks for warning me slacker.

To me market timing is done blindly hoping you have found a bottom in something. I know I can be wrong and will not hesitate to take a small loss if it doesn't go the way I think it should.
 

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An interesting article on China's future needs for natural resources. The numbers are staggering.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/fears-of-chinese-land-grab-as-beijings-billions-buy-up-resources-2095451.html

Couple the recent investments of commodity based businesses around the world, with the fact that China is increasingly fearful of the US ability to repay it's huge debts and the probable lowering of the US dollars value, and it is clear where this is heading..........longer term.

China lowered it's US debt holdings by 10% last year, and is expected to continue the trend of exchanging their US dollars for hard assets.

It is probably a pretty safe bet that commodity stocks will be worth much more in the future. Perhaps too far out for us to benefit in our lifetimes, but our kids and grandkids would do well.

As I heard one China observer comment recently, in North America our Government and businesses think in terms of the next "quarter".

In China they think in terms of the next "century".
 

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At my age, just about everything is too far out in the future to benefit me!:eek:

U.S. is issuing a travel alert tomorrow for Western European countries because of increased danger of terrorist attacks there.

Stocks are about to take another tumble if such attacks come to pass.:(

We live in uncertain times and the stock markets hate uncertainty!!:eek:
 

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U.S. is issuing a travel alert tomorrow for Western European countries because of increased danger of terrorist attacks there...
That is pure CYA.

We will fly home from Frankfurt without any fear on Wednesday and then turn around and head to (gasp) Mexico at month-end.
 

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I see Dog hasn't changed, lol. Almost need a translator for that original post. Here's a shocking statement to ponder: After a big runup stocks will pullback, the only problem is knowing when exactly.

There are all kinds of indicators you can bounce around to modify the expected results. SPX is under a sell signal yet Golden Cross just happened, institutional money was buying on quarter start, NYSE outperformed bullish, moving averages bullish. Problem is market is mirroring Oct 07 & May of 08 hence the sell.
 

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Discussion Starter #13
Yeah mogul you do need a translator for this original post. You see the Fed has said it will print until there is no tomorrow so the bears will not get their day in the sun or deflation will not occur. On the other hand conditions are now ripe to suck in the bulls only to screw them over.

May 08 does sound right in this case so we will see. You have to say the biggest screw over for all concerned would be for nothing to happen and we go sideways for months, frustrating all and to all a good night. So that does leave us with value and dividends to rule our day.
 
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