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Discussion Starter #1
Hi folks,

I've been tinkering with a bear market strategy for my indexing portfolio for the last few years now, and it looks like I'll finally have a chance to execute it. What are your thoughts on the following (current portfolio strategy has been 15% bonds, 85% equities, divided among CAD/US/Intl index funds):

1) To sell all bonds and rebalance to 100% equities upon a 30% decline from peak to through of one of the major US indices (I chose the S&P)

2) To dip into leverage (via HELOC) and borrow around 15% worth of my (pre-drop) portfolio value to further invest in equities, upon a 45% decline.

Insights appreciated,

Franko
 

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1. We're already at #1 with about a 30% drop on the S&P and 35% on the DOW.

2. Bonds have also dropped quite a bit. XBB down nearly 18% from just a few weeks ago- less than the 30% of the S&P, but it hasn't exactly behaved like cash.

3. Where do you baseline from? Markets spiked higher quite a bit in the last 3 months before the drop. If you used the average S&P price from 2019, which is closer to 2850, you would hit -30% at 2000 and -45% at 1567. We are quite a ways from both. You could be buying in too early and end up eating some big losses.

I did go from 70-30 equity/bond to 70-20-10 equity/bond/cash about two weeks ago when bonds were over 10% higher. And I'm likely to go 80-20 soon. I would like to go to 90-10 or even 100-0 on further drops, but not with bonds down almost 20%. If they bounce up, I may reconsider.
 

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Discussion Starter #3
1. We're already at #1 with about a 30% drop on the S&P and 35% on the DOW.

2. Bonds have also dropped quite a bit. XBB down nearly 18% from just a few weeks ago- less than the 30% of the S&P, but it hasn't exactly behaved like cash.

3. Where do you baseline from? Markets spiked higher quite a bit in the last 3 months before the drop. If you used the average S&P price from 2019, which is closer to 2850, you would hit -30% at 2000 and -45% at 1567. We are quite a ways from both. You could be buying in too early and end up eating some big losses.

I did go from 70-30 equity/bond to 70-20-10 equity/bond/cash about two weeks ago when bonds were over 10% higher. And I'm likely to go 80-20 soon. I would like to go to 90-10 or even 100-0 on further drops, but not with bonds down almost 20%. If they bounce up, I may reconsider.
Yes, I plan to sell my bonds tomorrow.

My bond holdings consist of primarily of HBB (which seems to have held up quite well - I'm not knowledgeable enough to know the reason why) and a lesser portion in VAB (down about 9.5%, but less than XBB as you had stated).

My baseline is from peak to through for my calculations (so S&P 3394). You do bring up a good point that we had a good rally to inflate the markets in the preceding few months, though. I based my plan on prior bear market decline figures, which, as far as I know, were also calculated using peak-to-trough figures.

I'm OK with not catching the exact bottom; from my experience with the 2007 bear, psychologically, I'd rather buy in somewhere near the bottom and hold on rather than try to time the market coming up.
 

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Yes, I plan to sell my bonds tomorrow.

My bond holdings consist of primarily of HBB (which seems to have held up quite well - I'm not knowledgeable enough to know the reason why) and a lesser portion in VAB (down about 9.5%, but less than XBB as you had stated).
You've got to very careful with this part. Bond ETFs, both HBB and XBB (and all the other ones) have been trading erratically, often very far below NAV (the net asset value or 'fair value').

One danger with your idea is that if you indiscriminately hit the sell button on your bond ETF, you may be locking in a permanent loss that cannot be recovered. Selling a bond ETF well below NAV is a bad idea. Horizons even has a warning on their web site about making trades on HBB and suggests you can contact them if you want some help trading units.

I think this is one instance of how being active right now, placing any trades, is going to incur some "friction" or losses just by virtue of touching a market which is moving in extreme ways. It almost doesn't matter what the trade is, but you're going to have an inefficiency by making a trade. The bond ETF price dislocation is just one example of many.

So that would be my caution about your idea. Personally I think it's not a good idea to touch your asset allocation during market turmoil. If it was me, and if I wanted to change an allocation, I would wait for more calm, perhaps for the VIX to drop lower back into a normal range.

Right now the VIX is at 80 which indicates extreme stress in financial markets. For context, during the 2000 tech crash, the VIX never exceeded 45 and during the 2008 financial crisis it hit about 80 only at its peak. We are at a moment of extreme stress in markets, and personally, I would not make ANY trades.
 

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In my humble opinion, the fundamentals haven't changed. If a portfolio with 85-100% in equities was risky before the crash, it's risky now too. Personally, I'm not changing my asset allocation because of the recent market crash. I'll simply rebalance to bring myself back to my target allocation. I keep the same asset allocation (so long as it makes sense for my life and risk tolerance) and I don't change it based on market conditions. To me that seems like timing the market, which I don't know how to do.

Investing with borrowed money is too risky, IMO. I never do that personally.
 

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Hi folks,

I've been tinkering with a bear market strategy for my indexing portfolio for the last few years now, and it looks like I'll finally have a chance to execute it. What are your thoughts on the following (current portfolio strategy has been 15% bonds, 85% equities, divided among CAD/US/Intl index funds):

1) To sell all bonds and rebalance to 100% equities upon a 30% decline from peak to through of one of the major US indices (I chose the S&P)

2) To dip into leverage (via HELOC) and borrow around 15% worth of my (pre-drop) portfolio value to further invest in equities, upon a 45% decline.

Insights appreciated,

Franko
Sounds dangerous to me. Your strategy, hopefully documented in an Investment Policy Statement (IPS), shouldn't be dependent on the whether it is a bull market, correction, bear market, crash, etc. It should always have an asset allocation that reflects your objectives and risk tolerance.

An 85/15 asset allocation is already aggressive, but push it further by introducing leverage into the equation and potentially exposing your house to risk from your investments. Remember that the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
 

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Hi folks,

I've been tinkering with a bear market strategy for my indexing portfolio for the last few years now, and it looks like I'll finally have a chance to execute it. What are your thoughts on the following (current portfolio strategy has been 15% bonds, 85% equities, divided among CAD/US/Intl index funds):

1) To sell all bonds and rebalance to 100% equities upon a 30% decline from peak to through of one of the major US indices (I chose the S&P)

2) To dip into leverage (via HELOC) and borrow around 15% worth of my (pre-drop) portfolio value to further invest in equities, upon a 45% decline.

Insights appreciated,

Franko[/QUOTE

Google value cost averaging
 

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In my humble opinion, the fundamentals haven't changed. If a portfolio with 85-100% in equities was risky before the crash, it's risky now too. Personally, I'm not changing my asset allocation because of the recent market crash. I'll simply rebalance to bring myself back to my target allocation. I keep the same asset allocation (so long as it makes sense for my life and risk tolerance) and I don't change it based on market conditions. To me that seems like timing the market, which I don't know how to do.

Investing with borrowed money is too risky, IMO. I never do that personally.
I strongly disagree with the statement that "the fundamentals haven't changed". That is definitely not true. The risk of significant market changes in the short term is still much, much, much higher than it was in 2019. I've had several discussions with my financial advisor on the topics of risk tolerance vs market timing which has helped clarify my understanding. This was in the context of me convincing my advisor to pull out of the market in February.

I successfully convinced my advisor that it made sense to pull out of the market. But the focus wasn't to try to maximize returns by timing the market. It was more a realization that the risk (in Dec, Jan, Feb etc.) of a significant change in the stock market had increased dramatically over the past few years. With that argument the risk/reward ratio was no longer attractive. We then formally changed my target asset allocation (from 70/30 stocks/cash-bonds to 30/70). In hindsight that was exactly the right call.
At this point in the time the risk is arguably still extremely high, although the potential reward is also higher. But the result is the same in that the market risk at the moment is still likely much higher than my 'risk target' which means I continue with my current investment strategy. The risk likely isn't going to go down until we get better visibility into the impact of the pandemic and some guidance on what the future looks like for the stock market.
 

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We then formally changed my target asset allocation (from 70/30 stocks/cash-bonds to 30/70). In hindsight that was exactly the right call.
At this point in the time the risk is arguably still extremely high, although the potential reward is also higher. But the result is the same in that the market risk at the moment is still likely much higher than my 'risk target' which means I continue with my current investment strategy. The risk likely isn't going to go down until we get better visibility into the impact of the pandemic and some guidance on what the future looks like for the stock market.
Hindsight is almost always 20:20 and as long as you are comfortable with your decision, that's all that matters.

That said, my read of your post indicates that your risk tolerance wasn't inline with your investment strategy. Have your formally written down, hopefully in your investment policy statement (IPS), what actions you will take in the future and what will be the triggers to make a change?

I've been through enough of these market events to know our risk tolerance very well and I haven't changed a thing, just following the plan. Our plan allows for change for life events, not market events. It has served us well through the dot com crisis, the financial crisis, and many others. No plans to change it.

IMHO one of the better blog sites out there is The Irrelevant Investor and last week there was an interesting post, The Psychology of a Bear Market that I thought was a good read and gave me some food for thought.
Michael Batnick said:
Everyone has a breaking point, and it’s only in times of distress that we learn where that point is. The psychology of a bear market goes something like this.


Source: The Psychology of a Bear Market - The Irrelevant Investor

Everybody’s tolerance for pain is different
I would hazard a guess that based on the uptick in posts/threads here, there is definitely confirmation that everyone's tolerance for pain, and for that matter risk, is different.

So what do you do?
Michael Batnick said:
Do you wait for stocks to go lower before you buy? How much lower? And forget about passively waiting, do you actively root for stocks to go lower? Selling might give you short-term relief, but what type of person wants to root for stocks to go lower? Believe me, that’s not a place you want to be.

If stocks bounce, do you get frustrated? If they keep going higher do you get mad? If they get back to the place where you sold do you get back in? If markets blow past the point you sold do you get angry? Do you think markets are rigged? Do you ever get back in?
Not all these emotions have been expressed here, but the spectrum has certainly been played out in the media.

I've been through enough of these types of events to know how to react. Sorry for harping, but it has shaped my investment policy statement (IPS) and asset allocation.

For those that might not have had this 'opportunity' to self-assess, perhaps the best quote from the article is:
Michael Batnick said:
This week will shape an entire generation’s view on risk. Young people will remember the coronavirus and they’ll remember what it did to the stock market.

The silver lining of this painful experience is that people will have a better respect for risk.
Hopefully that help someone.
 

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If you've a long term horizon, then you strategy is very sound. But what ppl fail to understand is that the markets can remain lower for years. The chances of that happening are low, because evidence suggests that markets have bounced back within a year or two most of the time.

But you should also plan for a situation for equities to stay depressed at this level for 3-5 years. You'll have to pay for the interest out of your pocket and you'll have no profits from your equities to cover for it. If 1 or 2 giants go bankrupt, you may even have losses. I dont think this recession will result in a depression, but what do I know?
 

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Discussion Starter #11
Right now the VIX is at 80 which indicates extreme stress in financial markets. For context, during the 2000 tech crash, the VIX never exceeded 45 and during the 2008 financial crisis it hit about 80 only at its peak. We are at a moment of extreme stress in markets, and personally, I would not make ANY trades.
Please educate me if my knowledge is flawed, but from what I understand, the VIX typically runs a strong negative correlation to the market. So, broadly speaking, wouldn't any strategy to "buy low" involve making moves at a time when the VIX is elevated?

Mr.Bean said:
If you've a long term horizon, then you strategy is very sound. But what ppl fail to understand is that the markets can remain lower for years. The chances of that happening are low, because evidence suggests that markets have bounced back within a year or two most of the time.

But you should also plan for a situation for equities to stay depressed at this level for 3-5 years. You'll have to pay for the interest out of your pocket and you'll have no profits from your equities to cover for it. If 1 or 2 giants go bankrupt, you may even have losses. I dont think this recession will result in a depression, but what do I know?
I do have a longer time horizon, in my opinion. I'm in my mid-thirties and financially stable with a good-paying job and an investment in a brick-and-mortar business. That being said, a large part of my long-term retirement plan does hinge on my portfolio. I don't expect any foreseeable pressure to "cash out" of the market for life events, so I expect to buy and hold (which is what I've done since starting my indexing portfolio about six years ago).

With the leverage - those are very valid points. I could ride out a depressed market for along time, but having to pay interest on borrowed money makes that a lot harder. Part of the reason I'm more comfortable with potential leverage is that I would only pull the trigger on a deeper downturn (at which point there is less downside risk and less room to further fall), as well as knowing that interest rates would likely remain quite low from the BoC, should the economy remain depressed.

P_I said:
Have your formally written down, hopefully in your investment policy statement (IPS), what actions you will take in the future and what will be the triggers to make a change?
May I ask for a quick summary of how you've structured your own IPS? Though I wasn't aware of a formal term for the idea, I did have an action plan in mind in the event of a bear market (the action plan stated in my first post). It sounds like an IPS is much more fleshed out than what I've got, and I would like to develop my own.
 

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Right now the VIX is at 80 which indicates extreme stress in financial markets. For context, during the 2000 tech crash, the VIX never exceeded 45 and during the 2008 financial crisis it hit about 80 only at its peak. We are at a moment of extreme stress in markets, and personally, I would not make ANY trades.
I looked @ this the other day. Cant remember the exact numbers. So far the VIX in this sell off has been in the low 80s If memory correct the old VIX would have been 90 something. In the 1987 crash the old VIX I think went to 150
 

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Please educate me if my knowledge is flawed, but from what I understand, the VIX typically runs a strong negative correlation to the market. So, broadly speaking, wouldn't any strategy to "buy low" involve making moves at a time when the VIX is elevated?
Yes, but if you look at 2008-09, the market didn't bottom until 6 months after the VIX hit a record high. It even dropped quite a bit a few months later only to come roaring back. is not the best tool for timing. So, you can be cautious as this isn't going to go away in a few weeks.
 

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May I ask for a quick summary of how you've structured your own IPS? Though I wasn't aware of a formal term for the idea, I did have an action plan in mind in the event of a bear market (the action plan stated in my first post). It sounds like an IPS is much more fleshed out than what I've got, and I would like to develop my own.
If you Google 'investment policy statement' you will find many different references and examples. Here are a few that I've found useful An Example of an Investment Policy Statement | Investopedia, or Investment Policy Statement | GetSmarterAboutMoney.ca, or Creating Your Investment Policy Statement | Morningstar. Read through them and see which one resonates with your personality.

My own IPS follows the template of those examples but is personalized to my objectives, circumstances and risk tolerance. It is a two-page document. Keeping it simple and easy to follow was a key. Formalizing it took some time but has been well worth it because it guides all my investment decisions and I don't have to worry about whether the market is going up, going down, correcting, etc. I don't get caught up in trying to interpret yesterday, today and tomorrow's market moves to decide what action I might take. I already have worked that out. In my IPS I've already made and documented the decisions on how to act, then I just stay the course and follow the plan.

When it came time to help write an IPS for my adult children as they entered the investing world, I found Diehard Sunny Sarkar's beautiful IPS was a great example that we've used. It is short and simple to understand and follow.
 

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Hindsight is almost always 20:20 and as long as you are comfortable with your decision, that's all that matters.

That said, my read of your post indicates that your risk tolerance wasn't inline with your investment strategy. Have your formally written down, hopefully in your investment policy statement (IPS), what actions you will take in the future and what will be the triggers to make a change?

I've been through enough of these market events to know our risk tolerance very well and I haven't changed a thing, just following the plan. Our plan allows for change for life events, not market events. It has served us well through the dot com crisis, the financial crisis, and many others. No plans to change it.

IMHO one of the better blog sites out there is The Irrelevant Investor and last week there was an interesting post, The Psychology of a Bear Market that I thought was a good read and gave me some food for thought.
I would hazard a guess that based on the uptick in posts/threads here, there is definitely confirmation that everyone's tolerance for pain, and for that matter risk, is different.

So what do you do?

Not all these emotions have been expressed here, but the spectrum has certainly been played out in the media.

I've been through enough of these types of events to know how to react. Sorry for harping, but it has shaped my investment policy statement (IPS) and asset allocation.

For those that might not have had this 'opportunity' to self-assess, perhaps the best quote from the article is:

Hopefully that help someone.
My point is that my investment strategy and risk tolerance didn't change. My high-level strategy is essentially to try to capture gains from the market as a whole (using index funds) while assuming a medium amount of risk. However the introduction of Covid19 dramatically changed the amount of risk that the market was going to crash. This isn't hindsight since I wrote about it here and took an action to update my portfolio to match the risk profile at the time. That obviously meant moving to cash and bonds which I did in December. Although I did actually update my investment policy statement with my financial advisor.

I have also lived through the dot-com bubble in the late 90s (I had substantial stock in Cisco where I was working at the time), the 2008 market crash (where I wrongly followed my financial advisor's advice), and the bull market and drops since. Through all of this I have learned not to try to time the market 99% of the time. But there are times where the risk of a substantial crash are substantially higher than any potential gain. Watch out of those times, and adjust your portfolio to match the risk.

I'm not usually a believer in black-and-white statements of fact. The right answer is usually somewhere in the grey. But the statement that "you can never time the market" is one of those.

As-of today I still feel the amount of risk that the market will continue to fall is still very high and as a result I'm going to continue to sit on the sidelines. That will probably continue to be true until we have some idea of the length of time we will need to shut-down the country. It could be a few months, or it could be 18. Until we have a much better idea of how this is going to play out the market will continue to be volatile and risky.
 

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Please educate me if my knowledge is flawed, but from what I understand, the VIX typically runs a strong negative correlation to the market. So, broadly speaking, wouldn't any strategy to "buy low" involve making moves at a time when the VIX is elevated?
It's true that they correlate that way, but when VIX is extremely high, financial markets tend to not work quite right. There are many problems happening right now and as retail investors, we only see a bit of them. The investment banks see much more, but won't tell us, and we won't understand them until it's much later. Examples are very wide bid/ask spreads on all ETFs. Failure of ETF arbitrage. ETFs not tracking NAV. Customers getting margin calls with forced liquidations. According to my sources, there have been massive margin calls in recent days, a big reason for the indiscriminate liquidation of everything. A huge demand for cash, huge demand for USD as loans are repaid. Deleveraging.

The Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada have started pumping money to support credit markets, as corporate credit and short term lending has totally frozen up.

These are not normal market conditions, which is why I'm suggesting that it's a bad time to trade anything. Yes I understand you want a low or falling market, but there's a difference between a market which is operating normally and one which is operating abnormally. Currently we are in a market that is not functioning correctly.

Franko, I have no idea of your risk tolerance, but you have to honestly ask yourself if you will be fine if stocks fall another 40% from here. Generally, it's a very bad idea to leverage against your home in the way you're describing. Have you considered the possibility that your lender calls in your HELOC? The HELOCs are callable loans -- you might be forced to repay it on short notice.

This actually did happen in the US during their last financial crisis. And Canada could end up with a similar financial crisis, given that our nation's lending is more closely linked to the resource sector. I would not rule out the possibility that banks have to tighten their lending.

Lending to corporations has already tightened tremendously and I think you're asking for trouble assuming that you can easily borrow on your HELOC. If they call in your loan, it will ... to put it mildly... ruin your strategy.

I have invested through two bear markets. In 2000-2002 with a small amount of money, and 2007-2009 with a larger amount of money. I have a pretty fresh memory of investing & placing trades during serious bear markets. Here is my advice:

1. don't use ANY leverage
2. run a what-if scenario with 40% further decline
3. stick to one consistent plan; don't time the market
4. factor in that you may lose your job and have no income for a while

One quirk of market crashes and bear markets is that each is a bit different, and each has angles or quirks that are totally new and which throw surprises. A key thing to understand is that you cannot foresee what those surprises will be; this is why they are surprises.

Avoiding leverage is one way to protect yourself from the surprises. Typically, investors who don't use leverage are the ones who can sit through the pain and wait out the bear market until it eventually recovers.
 

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Hi folks,

I've been tinkering with a bear market strategy for my indexing portfolio for the last few years now, and it looks like I'll finally have a chance to execute it. What are your thoughts on the following (current portfolio strategy has been 15% bonds, 85% equities, divided among CAD/US/Intl index funds):

1) To sell all bonds and rebalance to 100% equities upon a 30% decline from peak to through of one of the major US indices (I chose the S&P)

2) To dip into leverage (via HELOC) and borrow around 15% worth of my (pre-drop) portfolio value to further invest in equities, upon a 45% decline.

Insights appreciated,

Franko
Your ruined before you even started. Take heed in what J4B said in above post. The first step in developing a plan is that of money management. Putting everything on the table is just plane crappy money management. The second step is developing a method that gives you an edge. Then simply follow the method. Putting everything on the table will make it very hard to follow the method & if you are able to follow the method you will still blow up @ some point because no method bats 100%. Come on seriously get real do not destroy your future over greed. My words might sound harsh though if you go through with your plan The pain will be 1000 fold compared to reading this.
 

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Discussion Starter #18 (Edited)
James: firstly - this is all wonderful advice and much appreciated. After hearing it strongly from you and others, I'm rethinking the use of any leverage.

Has there been any consensus as to what's happening with the ETF trading issues you mentioned? Has this happened before?

1. don't use ANY leverage
2. run a what-if scenario with 40% further decline
3. stick to one consistent plan; don't time the market
4. factor in that you may lose your job and have no income for a while
I'd like to believe I have a reasonably high risk tolerance, as these past few weeks have not deterred me. The 2007-2009 bear was my introduction to investing, so I do understand and appreciate that there could be some (or a lot more) downside from here. I'd be willing to wait out further declines (I am not expecting to have to draw from my portfolio for at least a couple decades). I also have some ownership in a healthcare business and am in healthcare myself, so I am lucky enough to have some isolation from what is happening all around us, in terms of job security.

I had discussed going 100% equity and selling my bonds to invest in equities on a 30% decline (which has happened) - this was a part of my investment plan and I have had this plan in place for some time now. So, it is hard for me to deter myself from going ahead with it, as I feel that not doing it would in fact be a deviation from my plan. I would respectfully argue that going from an 85 equity/15 bond position to 100 equity is just a more forceful rebalancing of the portfolio to tilt towards equities, not necessarily a drastic change from my prior investment plan.
 

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1. don't use ANY leverage
2. run a what-if scenario with 40% further decline
3. stick to one consistent plan; don't time the market
4. factor in that you may lose your job and have no income for a while

This is good advise...

About 2 years ago a friend that went into financial management through selling insurance tried to convince me to leverage my house via a HELOC and buy into the markets and boost my returns all the while getting a tax break on the interest. Now he is correct on how it works, but I dont think I would sleep at night. I sleep good right now knowing that my house is all mine regardless of markets or anything. If I had a paper route I could probably muster through... Glad I did not do what he was advising.

Plan for further drops and a VERY slow recovery... remember 'what if it doesnt come back'

Rebalance into and out of the dip.... changing your allocations is timing the market and generally backfires... I do make slight adjustments here and there but I rebalance (stick) to 40/20/40 (%)

A cash surplus is 'money in the bank', helps you sleep at night. My job is 'generally' pretty secure and thus I keep a 6 month reserve.

Lastly, be realistic based on your age ! If your 25 your risk profile should be different vs if your 45 or 55. Do you have a family, how young are your kids ? Are you a single income family ? How big is your mortgage ? There are lots to consider. Be realistic. The market is not just easy quick cash.
 

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James: firstly - this is all wonderful advice and much appreciated. After hearing it strongly from you and others, I'm rethinking the use of any leverage.
Happy I could help.

Has there been any consensus as to what's happening with the ETF trading issues you mentioned? Has this happened before?
Yes it's happened before. Similar departures from NAV occurred during 2008. It's not that surprising to me, and the ETFs are still holding up pretty well overall. It's not a disaster by any means, but it's a quirky thing that can happen with ETFs. Normally we are used to this in closed-end funds, but think of ETFs as perfectly tracking. I just wanted to point out that ETFs don't always track perfectly and the share price (not actual underlying value) of an ETF can swing around dramatically on any given day.

The 2007-2009 bear was my introduction to investing, so I do understand and appreciate that there could be some (or a lot more) downside from here. I'd be willing to wait out further declines (I am not expecting to have to draw from my portfolio for at least a couple decades). I also have some ownership in a healthcare business and am in healthcare myself, so I am lucky enough to have some isolation from what is happening all around us, in terms of job security.
That's a great time to get your introduction to investing, and with that kind of job, it does sound like you have some extra security! Nice

I had discussed going 100% equity and selling my bonds to invest in equities on a 30% decline (which has happened) - this was a part of my investment plan and I have had this plan in place for some time now. So, it is hard for me to deter myself from going ahead with it, as I feel that not doing it would in fact be a deviation from my plan.
Ah that's interesting, I had not realized that before. Well if it's in your plan, I think you're justified in doing it. I thought perhaps it was a recent idea you got only after seeing the crash.

With an existing plan, I think it makes sense to go ahead with it... I'm a big fan of sticking to existing plans :)

Just beware that the market could still decline another 30% to 40%, and it might not bounce back for 10 to 15 years. Possibly even 30 years (Japan). These things have all happened before in history. If you are OK with those possibilities, then I don't see any reason to hold back your plan to boost from 85% equities to 100% equities.
 
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