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Disclosure: I own BCE shares and intend to for the long haul.

The recent dips were probably good entry points due to the uncertainty around the introduction of unlimited plans and then everyone freaking out when RCI, first to report, had to revise annual guidance downward. The shares have since recovered after BCE's reconfirmed their earnings after reporting.

In the short to medium term, I suspect BCE will continue to be able to grow their dividend annually at about a 5% clip. The growth to support this is coming from continued wireless subscriber growth (from Canadian population growth and continued wireless penetration) and migrating customers from copper DSL onto more expensive fibre Internet plans.
Longer term growth should be coming from IOT home services and 5G IOT services.

Key short term threats seem to be regulatory: Liberal's election promise to reduce wireless bill by 25%, decision on whether to allow BCE and T to use Huawei in their 5G build, etc.
Longer term threats are regulatory and technology disruption. Who knows if the Canadian market will ever be completely opened up to foreign competition. However, if it does happen, there would like be corresponding mergers and acquisitions. I can't say I'm fully knowledgeable about the satellite technology m3s speaks about but I would definitely deem it a threat. However, personally, I can't see how physical fibre to the home connections can be beat from a reliability and scalability perspective. And for the remote locations, BCE will be utilizing point to point 5G wireless connections. But who knows what's around the corner.
 

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Fiber to the home can't be beat in urban areas

My parents internet can barely stream video and they aren't that far from urban areas. Canada is huge and fiber to the home isn't cost effective in most of rural Canada. My last home was closer to urban mostly for decent internet - some very nice rural options had a similarly short commute but they were using LTE for their internet. Starlink will likely undercut paying by the GB for LTE/5G data, especially if you share an antenna with neighbours

Many rural Canadians at the moment either settle for poor terrestrial internet, or pay monopolistic data rates for LTE/5G/satellite
 

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Well I can't find the thread for dividend increases but BCE bumped theirs 5% again today. They are knocking it out of the park which is good news for most Canadian investors like me that own a **** ton of this company.

btw this thread is a decent read from the beginning...guys trying to jump in & out , others saying Wind would replace the big 3 etc. but it shows how the strategy to buy & hold quality businesses just kills the market.
 

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Fiber to the home can't be beat in urban areas
We live very close to a built urban area, but so far, Bell have not brought fiber to our area. But even if they did, I can't see any reason we would go to it.

We use Start internet. They lease cable from Cogeco. We have their lowest speed 15Mbps. Costs $40/month. We could double this speed for another $5. But we see no reason to do so. Things like Netflix and others that we occasionally stream work fine. So why would I need 30 or 100+ Mbps? We are currently in USA where we do have 100+Mbps, but notice no difference. I have asked friends about this, and seems they think they need higher speed for gaming????

I suppose we might use Bell if they did serve our area. It would have to competitively replace (Shaw Direct TV + Start Internet) that cost us about $110/month. For home phone we have Ooma at <$5/month and can't see giving up on that. (like many, we used to have Bell landline)

Meanwhile, BCE is our largest holding and we enjoy the dividends. Bought some of it when it was in $20s because they were trying to become an income trust.
 

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The need for higher internet speeds is a marketing ploy. The vast majority of people could get buy with speeds of 25mbs or less.
Unless you’re gaming or downloading movies (vs streaming), then you’ll be fine.

We have a 10mbs plan in our rural home....with two teenagers......3 screens are often streaming at night with no issues.

If I had a choice I’d probably pay for speeds up to 50mbs, but beyond that it’s not needed. The only lag I find is when we upload photos to the cloud.
 

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It's true paying for more download bandwidth is a waste for most

The cheapest plan I could get here is now 120Mbps download for $35/mo. It was like 50Mbps last year and got bumped up for free. Even 50MBps download is lots for a typical family. Yet my upload is only 5MBps which is what you notice when uploading pics. This is not lag

The latency or ping is more like the speed/lag and they can't throttle the latency like bandwidth so they can't market it the same. Ping is what matters for gaming or say a doctor controlling a surgical robot. You could think of it more like response rate if the network is controlling say an autonomous car.

New networks like 5G and starlink improve on the latency not the bandwidth but people confuse the 2
 

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BCE was a January buy at $60.90 for me. Now already $64.22 and rising. Really, with Canadian immigration at 300k+ per year (close to 400k in the last year - 200k pop growth in Q3 alone), everyone will be buying cell phones and the telecom companies are just printing money hand over fist. No one will ever really compete with the big 3 and Shaw will never come up with the tens of billions necessary to overturn one of them. BCE and Telus are my picks in the space.
 

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No one will ever really compete with the big 3 and Shaw will never come up with the tens of billions necessary to overturn one of them. BCE and Telus are my picks in the space.
The elephant in the room is the government, and their election promise to cheapen the cost of data and cell phone plans. JT promises to cut 25% off the cost of owning a cell phone - will it happen? IDK. I think he has enough on his plate right now to deal with right now. https://www.narcity.com/news/ca/justin-trudeau-promises-to-cut-canadas-cellphone-bills-by-25-in-the-next-4-years
 

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One risk a BCE shareholder has to keep in mind that in Canada, we have just a couple large telcos that enjoy a duopoly type of benefit (of market control and power) in the nation. There is certainly an anti-competitive element.

BCE has enjoyed this for a long time, but it may not always be the case going forward. That's a risk that investors have to keep in mind. It's possible that due to government regulation and market forces, that the telco environment could change dramatically at some point.

That being said, BCE is still one of my largest holdings in my somewhat passive 5-pack.
 

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in Canada, we have just a couple large telcos that enjoy a duopoly type of benefit (of market control and power) in the nation.
Well, I count BCE, Rogers, Telus, Shaw, Gogeco and Quebecor (Videotron) as the most significant players. They are not identical businesses, but play in overlapping landscapes. When I was buying my "5-pack" I went with a mix of BCE, Rogers, Telus and Shaw to cover the sector. It's more of a 28-pack.

QBR-B and CGO are also light on dividends, possibly appealing to a low-dividend investor in the segment.
 

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I've held QBR.B for about 3 years in my low div portfolio, but a much smaller position than BCE.

Long term performance has been pretty amazing, 10 year return of 16% per year.
 

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300,000 new arrivals means how many new customer accounts, since they'll group into households? 200,000 new customer accounts seems like a generous guesstimate to me.

maybe just over half go to bce & t; next largest tier to rogers & shaw; remainder among videotron, cogeco & generic micros.

are 200,000 new customer accounts divided among 6 name telcos plus a dozen micros truly going to boost ARPU significantly?

i was looking at analyst target prices in bce, they're all aiming at low to high 60s. Highest analyst target 69. Stochs & RSI looking short-term toppish.
 

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300k people could mean as many as 500k accounts; virtually everyone gets their own cell phone, and then households are still signing up for land services (internet and to a lesser extent cable). No, it's not huge growth, but it is growth, and cell phones are only becoming more ubiquitous, not less - take a look around when you go out and try to find people who aren't on their phones. For the record, BCE added over 100k net new accounts in Q4 alone after subtracting legacy loss.

So sure, I probably wouldn't be in a rush to add now but I'd just like to point out BCE is still yielding 5.2% after their recent dividend increase; it was also yielding a similar amount back in 2011-2 when I was buying shares at $35. That's a 9 year return of about 10.5% a year compounded.
 

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300k people could mean as many as 500k accounts; virtually everyone gets their own cell phone, and then households are still signing up for land services (internet and to a lesser extent cable).

so sorry, i do disagree

300,000 new arrivals in canada means 300,000 new souls. Most are grouped in families. The majority of the new souls are children. Very many are babies, infants & toddlers. No new phone accounts there.

out of 300,000 new souls, perhaps 110,000 - 150,000 adults. Perhaps 50,000 - 80,000 households. Of these, very few are rich enough to afford cell plus landline/cable plus multiple devices. Divide those 50-80k households among 6 brand telcos plus a dozen or more generic micros & earnings from this sector look like piffle to me.

agreed, dividend is nice. For generations BCE has always been Ma Bell, the widows-&-orphans cash cow w the big fat dividend. But i have a real hard time seeing future growth upon growth upon growth for ole Ma.

perhaps one could look instead for "canadian" companies like thomson reuters that are able to sell internationally, multinationally, without fetter. TRI stock has near tripled in 2 years. Bell doesn't sell outside canada.
 

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Most are grouped in families. The majority of the new souls are children. Very many are babies, infants & toddlers. No new phone accounts there.
But the ones who came 2, 3, 4 years ago ARE adding new accounts. Children become teenagers and waste/spend a lot of money on internet, apps and phones.
 

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I am not too worried about it. I know I will get it back eventually. It's just such a pain that I could have bought at a lower price and had to go through this.

Oh, well. I learned a lesson.

What I'm really hoping for is the chance to sell it above $40.50, after the ex dividend date.
Ya...no growth here.
 
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