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The more nuanced approach is to talk about disability adjusted life years or quality adjusted life years as a result a disease. That is, how many years of life are lost vs what would have otherwise been expected absent COVID. A lot of skeptics are saying "these are all people who were going to die in a matter of years anyway". That may be true. Of course, people are also underplaying the amount of disability and reduced life span for survivors. We just say "they recovered" as if they are back to full function and it was just a mild inconvenience. Many people have severe long-lasting complications wrt kidney, liver, lung function. Some people will be permanently disabled from the ICU delirium and associated PTSD. These costs/impacts are being downplayed by the skeptics/'Rightists' (or more to the point, they are totally ignorant of these impacts).
Let's be clear, there's no point in trying to discuss nuance with certain people. Many are a black or white type thinking: people live or people die. The whole idea of quality of life is not even in the conversation because it makes their head explode, "Why are they complaining that they have aches and pains? They're alive aren't they?" As discussed on the other threads, the conversation pretty much needs to be kept at a basic level for engagement.
 

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Discussion Starter #162
The only reason these people are acting irresponsibly is because they don't see anyone they know, getting sick and/or dying.
If you wait for people you know to drop dead from it, it's going to be too late. We are still at the very early stages of understanding this disease. To me it's obvious that when dealing with a new threat like this that one has to take the cautious, conservative interpretation.

Also remember, BC has been a popular travel destination for a few months now. I've asked a few random people on the street (Vancouver) if they live around here and most say "no". Everyone has been coming here for fun. They're visiting from Ontario, Quebec, Alberta, etc. It seems that everyone has flocked here for fun. And now we have rapid infection spread in BC, so what does this mean? Those travellers are going to take it back with them to the other provinces.
 

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Unfortunately that's what it takes, even just to acknowledge that COVID exists: He thought the coronavirus was 'a fake crisis.' Then he contracted it.
Absolutely. That type of article works well for me. For others I am afraid, that guy is still just another stranger. I think for our adult community It is a little like trying to lose weight. Most who try will fall into the problem of saying "well today is a special occasion so I will eat irresponsibly today, but I promise to be better tomorrow". As I said, most older people, I believe, probably think they are doing a pretty good job with C-19 protection, with perhaps a few slips. I kind of had to go to Dad's birthday party since I did not want to be the one to ruin his special day. The only way I can stop Joe at work from coming close to me, without a mask on, is if I make a federal case and I don't want to offend him or look like a coward. I can't go on forever not seeing my grown up children and grandchildren so I am going to make an exception with them, like the virus could care less about those issues.

When it is all added up it is pretty much the same as a no holds barred, spring break vacation, raw dogging it all the way, if you ask me.

That said, we do not seem to be suffering in a large way except for some infections that get recorded on a daily report, that most people are probably starting to ignore by now. As usual, we will need to be severely whacked before we respond to the threat. I wish it was not the case, but I am afraid it is. So in the mean time, look out for yourself and be aware of these threats to your health, is all I can say, at this time.
 

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I'm waiting for cases to be reported from going back to school ... from all across Canada.
 

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Some people seem to be missing the FACT that BC is now having more cases than at any time since this all began.

Back in March etc. would anyone have been saying, 'oh, it's not that many serious cases'. The virus spreads EXPONENTIALLY. It does not go 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, it goes 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32.

BC is losing control and THAT is what matters.
 

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Back in March etc. would anyone have been saying, 'oh, it's not that many serious cases'. The virus spreads EXPONENTIALLY. It does not go 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, it goes 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32.
Trump? But yes, contagion does spread exponentially unless the virus hits roadblocks, i.e. people who isolate and don't pass along the virus, or death.
 

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Just reporting what many felt was impossible. Putting political spin to impede a vaccine release is pretty cold. Of course in Canada we'll get our vaccine after other 1st world nations are finished but things are looking up.
 

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This is what I understand:

There are 9 vaccines in research around the world.

2 are American.
1 vaccine requires minus 70F storage.
The one which U.S. schools are supposed to get prepared for in October.
The schools don't have the freezers required.
1 vaccine requires a 2nd Booster shot within 2 weeks.
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Here in Canada ...... I think it is an Impossible Dream to open schools.
There is just no way that the ventilation systems in schools are equipped to at least triple the amount of room air changes per hour,

Parents need to know what the air change per minute is in the classroom. (Each classroom will be different.)

I would imagine that a classroom should have the same air changes that a hospital surgery room would have.
(No recirculation)
Minimum total air change per hour is 15
No Recirculated Air - All air exhausted directly to outdoors
 

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Just reporting what many felt was impossible. Putting political spin to impede a vaccine release is pretty cold. Of course in Canada we'll get our vaccine after other 1st world nations are finished but things are looking up.
Developed, proven to be safe, proven to be effective and scaled for manufacturing are different than claims to have a vaccine. Lots of candidate vaccines out there. It's a touch early to be declaring victory.

I don't think anyone claimed that it was impossible to develop a vaccine on this timeline, just that is was unlikely given previous experience with vaccine development. And the fact that a coronavirus vaccine has never made it to market despite previous epidemics.
 

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Discussion Starter #175
Various government officials (worldwide) are sounding the alarm about complacency about COVID-19 resulting in runaway cases. The latest is Boris Johnson, talking about a surge in UK cases. Remember, he also caught COVID and ended up in hospital himself.

Ford in Ontario is also warning people.

Here's my guess. Summer has resulted in very widespread complacency and lack of fear (Americas & Europe). I think we'll probably see a major spike everywhere in cases. We'll probably see government officials come to their senses and start doing what they should have done months ago: shut down bars and pubs, pass laws for mandatory mask usage.

Possibly another economic shutdown and continuation of depression, as well. The 30% to 40% crash in GDP is not something you can shrug off.
 

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Astro Zeneca vaccine trials have been halted due to a patient with severe adverse effects. This is the second time the clinical trials have been halted.
 

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Discussion Starter #177
Here's my guess. Summer has resulted in very widespread complacency and lack of fear (Americas & Europe). I think we'll probably see a major spike everywhere in cases. We'll probably see government officials come to their senses and start doing what they should have done months ago: shut down bars and pubs, pass laws for mandatory mask usage.
Within an hour of posting this, BC announced they are closing night clubs and banquet halls. Bars must close at 11 pm.

Great to see government doing smart things.
 

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Cases in Ontario are pretty limited to 3 regions. Half of the health units in the province are typically reporting 5 cases or less a day. Cases are definitely on the rise though. Let’s hope it’s the “smaller” 2Nd wave variety vs. The larger second wave variety.

I‘d hate to see another lockdown during the winter months. Probably good for ski hills though - a pretty good activity to socially distance.
 

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Just reporting what many felt was impossible. Putting political spin to impede a vaccine release is pretty cold ...
Not sure who what politicians say is going to slow down or impede a vaccine release.

As for "impossible", the comments I can recall getting were more that it was unlikely so that current plans shouldn't hinge on it.

I can recall pointing out that there's been previous work that was almost carried to the finish line as well as similarities to SARs to help speed up the process.


Cheers
 

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This is what I understand:

There are 9 vaccines in research around the world ...
Not sure why your numbers are so low.

Thirty seven are reported to be in human trials, with another ninety one in pre-clinical ones being investigated in animals.

Of those in human trials - twenty four are in phase one, fourteen are in phase two, nine are in phase three, three are in the limited phase and zero are approved for full use.

You seem to need a scorecard though as some vaccines are following the progression while others are combining phase one and two trials (aka hybrid trial).

The Astra-Zenica / University of Oxford candidate seems to have done the hybrid phase one and two then gone on to a hybrid phase two and three with select countries having a stand alone phase three. Or maybe I am misreading the info. :)


Cheers
 
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