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Massive beat. I heard estimates of $0.40 a share, down 20% year over year. In fact they were up 47% year over year. And this was through the worst 3 months of the pandemic - looks like massive drop in fuel sales was fully offset by increased retail margins. I don't own any shares but that is a epic beat and also makes ATD quite reasonably priced.
 

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Seems like investors didn't like the news about Carrefour offer. Could be an opportunity to buy at discounted price.
 

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Discussion Starter #43
Seems like investors didn't like the news about Carrefour offer. Could be an opportunity to buy at discounted price.
Potentially. I'm not sure why they are bidding on an overseas grocery chain as goes against the business model. Sounds like the deal might not go through.
But leaves me questioning management and this decision.
 

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Potentially. I'm not sure why they are bidding on an overseas grocery chain as goes against the business model. Sounds like the deal might not go through.
But leaves me questioning management and this decision.
Actually the bid for Carrefour is right within ATD's wheelhouse and adds to their international exposure.
Carrefour has 12,500 stores in 30 countries (Europe, Latin America, Asia) with 7,200 convenience stores, so they're not just bidding on a grocery chain.

ltr
 

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I've always shied away from this one as it offers next to zero dividend. I have taken a closer look and the dividend growth along with SP appreciation have been great over the years. There are many others that I have always thought to expensive (CP,CNR, CSU, AAPL, AMZN). Ignoring the Mar 2020 cratering that the market took, the near $6 drop over the past couple days brings the price close to what it was at the start of 2019.
 

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Actually the bid for Carrefour is right within ATD's wheelhouse and adds to their international exposure.
Carrefour has 12,500 stores in 30 countries (Europe, Latin America, Asia) with 7,200 convenience stores, so they're not just bidding on a grocery chain.

ltr
Potentially the strategy is to eventually keep the convenience chain and spin off the grocery business. Not that I have a feel for how divergent those two businesses are in other parts of the world relative to North America. I don't go around comparing convenience stores vs grocers when I visit Europe.

Re: Post #45 - That is data mining picking stock price over the past 2 days relative to the longer trend. ATD's stock price movements have always been bumpy, i.e. flat for some time and then a surge and then flat again depending on when they make an acquisition and how long it takes to assimilate and integrate the business. True, one does not buy it for the dividend. One buys it for the Return on Equity and/or Return on Capital Employed which equates to Total Return longer term. It is had to argue with the 10 year chart: About $4 in early 2011 vs $35-45 today (current aberration will pass) plus small dividend. That is at least a 10 bagger in 10 years.
 

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I never bought into ATD because of valuation and low dividend, but I have to say it looks very attractive here and is now on my watch list. I will have to watch and see with this acquisition though. I doubt they will get it without endorsement from the French government.
 

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Its amazing how many people must shop at this stores in Ontario as an example. Not sure if others are the same but they have nothing I need and many items are likely most expensive to buy but it appears the business works.
 

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Nor do I but the bulk of the profits are the Circle K type stores and not the fuel. The looming issue though is how do they re-invent themselves when cars go EV and don't have to stop for fuel. The stores will have to morph into something different than today.
 

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Nor do I but the bulk of the profits are the Circle K type stores and not the fuel. The looming issue though is how do they re-invent themselves when cars go EV and don't have to stop for fuel. The stores will have to morph into something different than today.
Yeah, I'm sure they have designs on adding EV chargers, but most people will be charging their cars at home.

ltr
 

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Nor do I but the bulk of the profits are the Circle K type stores and not the fuel. The looming issue though is how do they re-invent themselves when cars go EV and don't have to stop for fuel. The stores will have to morph into something different than today.
They are convenience stores open at all hours. So there's always going to be some traffic, particularly if they sell alcohol. With EVs, you may still have people who require charging, i.e. people out of town, people living in apartments and condos with limited or no access to charging stations. Given the time to charge, they could always set up a small eating area like you see in stops along the highway. But we're talking about dozens of years down the road before gas cars are no longer around (if ever), so there'll still be some need for gas. You just have to look at who their regular customer base is (which I don't know), but I doubt the transition to EV would make that much difference.
 

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My sister and BIL both drive EVs. When they travel to family cottage they have to make plans for a charging stop, typically on the return trip. Unlike my two minute refueling stop where I just wait by the pump, their stop generally takes a minimum of 15 minutes. So there is available 'wait' time for the co-located convenience store. I would guess that Couche-Tard will leverage this stoppage time to their advantage, i.e. high margin in the Circle K store.
 

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I think all of those things are right to some degree. Traffic will still go to Circle K's for the convenience at significant markup for quick items on the way home and IF they install EV chargers AND they offer something else for customers to do for 20-30 minutes, those who don't have ability or convenient means to charge at home or work will stop, charge and shop//play. I see the addition of some entertainment capability including WiFi lounges, etc. I still see a decline in traffic eventually but I am obviously not worried. I have a full position in this stock and added a bit to it a few days ago at $37.02
 

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Didn't they try to block an acquisition of Danone, because dairy products are of strategic nation interest?
 

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And so it ends: Exclusive: Canada's Couche-Tard drops US$20 billion Carrefour takeover plan - source

"Food security is strategic for our country so that's why we don't sell a big French retailer. My answer is extremely clear: we are not in favour of the deal. The no is polite but it's a clear and final no," Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said.

Now, if it were only a matter of Couche Tard only interested in the convenience stores, and spun off the supermarket side, do you think they could have worked out a deal? It would be more in-line with their business model and probably get a toehold in Europe.
 

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I think in the long run ATD is better off not blowing its brains out over extending themselves, especially off continent.

Maybe they should try buy Oxxo off of FEMSA in Mexico FMX (NYSE) 75.75 ▼ -1.14 (-1.48%) . They are gold mines down there...over 18,000 of them and FMX is at 5 year low ...pay in pesos!

And Couche is already there anyway... Mexico City-based brewer Grupo Modelo sold its 880-unit Extra c-store chain in Mexico to Circulo K, an independent franchisor for Mexico to which a subsidiary of Laval, Quebec-based Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. has granted a license for the rights to the Circle K brand in Mexico.

Maybe ATD can ship me a finders fee.
 
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