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The main cause of the stock market crash in 1973-1974 was not the rising rates, it was the oil crisis. Oil price jumped from $20 to $55.
In 1973 over the course of 6-7 months, oil jumped 4 times in price - 300%. From $3 to $12 a barrel in nominal value at the time.

So imagine if oil went from $65 today to $260 in the next 6 months, just like 1973. That could definitely hit stocks really hard. That would be real money leaving the economy to keep people's cars running, food cooked, and houses warm. You know, important stuff, not like spending your money on crypto or GME.

Capital investment is down massively in a industry that requries massive capital investment. There could easily be a shock or who knows what that could cause a spike. Watch out.
 

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In 1973 over the course of 6-7 months, oil jumped 4 times in price - 300%. From $3 to $12 a barrel in nominal value at the time.
So imagine if oil went from $65 today to $260 in the next 6 months, just like 1973. That could definitely hit stocks really hard ...
Sure ... but that would miss out on the effects of the US stopping being the top producer, coupled with OPEC stopping shipments to the US and other countries at the same time.
There were more factors in play than just price increases.

Cheers
 

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The Bank of Canada released a statement on its strategy going forward, how it's going to handle stimulus

The roadmap laid out by Macklem is consistent with what economists and markets have been anticipating -- a final taper later this year to bring net purchases of bonds to about zero, followed by a first rate hike later in 2022. Swaps trading suggests that investors are pricing in a 100 per cent chance of a hike over the next 12 months. Three hikes over the next two years are fully priced in, which would leave Canada with the highest policy rate among Group of Seven economies.
Notice what the derivative market already believes. The market is expecting several rate hikes over the next two years.

 

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The Bank of Canada released a statement on its strategy going forward, how it's going to handle stimulus



Notice what the derivative market already believes. The market is expecting several rate hikes over the next two years.
We desperately need to hike interest rates, but the politics will be risky.
With near zero rates, housing has rocketted up, even small hikes are going to tank the real estate market, and put people in dire straits.
Talking to people, many are maxxed out on variable <2% mortgages. They've very vulnerable.

Too many people are in too much debt, we're simply overleveraged, the individual person/family all the way up to the government.

I've been lucky, I didn't go crazy during COVID with renos, and didn't pile on debt.
 

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Bonds seem to be falling swiftly now, and yields are rising.

Maybe interest rates are finally going up? Not the central bank overnight rate (yet) but the rest of the yield curve seems to be moving higher.

Would be excellent, if it happens.
 

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Bank of Canada stops QE. With today's announcement we see that once again they brought forward the timeframe for which they will start to raise overnight rates (now middle of 2022 from previous back half and before that end of).

Watch the belly of the curve, especially after (US) Fed day, next week.
 

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As a holder of a fair amount of rate reset preferreds, I am watching the 5 year government bond rate carefully. Pleased to see it keeps rising.
I have a number too (~15% of portfolio) I heard something on CBC while driving today. I think they said that BofC said that current 4.5% inflation rate could climb to 5% by middle of next year, but after that fall back to the 2% target rate. Presumably GOC5 rate will do something similar. If so, we will have to be lucky to have reset dates that coincide with high GOC5 rates! Most of mine are dated 2022-2025. Bought at discount, so at today's GOC5, most will reset in 6-6.5% range on cost. Some of those may be called!
 

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According to this Bloomberg article, here's what happened in today's BoC announcement. You can find more articles at bnnbloomberg
  • the BoC ended its government bond-buying stimulus program (QE)
  • suggested the BoC may increase the policy rate sooner than earlier thought
  • still pledged to not raise the policy rate until the recovery is complete
The derivative market is pricing in five x 0.25% rate hikes next year... wow. So the market really thinks the BoC is going to tighten soon, by more than 1% ? Really?

The rate is still 0.25% today

Notice they are saying they will not dare raise interest rates until the recovery is "complete". And what does that mean?
 

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According to this Bloomberg article, here's what happened in today's BoC announcement. You can find more articles at bnnbloomberg
  • the BoC ended its government bond-buying stimulus program (QE)
  • suggested the BoC may increase the policy rate sooner than earlier thought
  • still pledged to not raise the policy rate until the recovery is complete
The derivative market is pricing in five x 0.25% rate hikes next year... wow. So the market really thinks the BoC is going to tighten soon, by more than 1% ? Really?

The rate is still 0.25% today

Notice they are saying they will not dare raise interest rates until the recovery is "complete". And what does that mean?
Re: your question on "complete" recovery. Essentially, at the moment it is a balance between wanting to see full employment and inflation expectations. [If you want to understand what the BOC is looking at and tracking to make their decisions I suggest you read their info. Start here. They are transparent about what they need to see to raise rates.]

Re: policy rate increases forecast in the futures markets. The quantum of increases has been the case for some time. This week they announced a move forward in timing.. It has always been a question of when lift off starts. Officially BOC now says in the middle quarters of 2022, ie Q2 or 3. Which is a move forward of the timing from past communications. Market participants are voting April through futures market which is of course the beginning of Q2. Then incremental steps of 25bps up from there.
 
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