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Some areas I've been following...

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Some places are down even more. In Mission, BC (just across the river from Abbotsford) the median price is down 27.8% over the same period. I define a drop of 30% as a crash, so we're getting near crash territory. I think this will be a full-on crash in many areas by fall. I see that it's already a crash in parts of the GTA by that measure.
 

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When it comes to that I like to look at how many years of price gains were lost before calling something a 'crash'.
Right now it is still nothing. Maybe a year of price gains lost, a little bit less than that actually
 

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When it comes to that I like to look at how many years of price gains were lost before calling something a 'crash'.
Right now it is still nothing. Maybe a year of price gains lost, a little bit less than that actually
True... but tell that to the people who bought at the top. ;)

This is only the beginning though. I expect we'll go below pre-COVID prices before the market finds a bottom. And then we're likely to bump and grind along at those depressed values for quite some time. I wouldn't be surprised it it took 10 years to recover the losses.
 

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It will be interesting to see if cottages get whacked. I was looking at a full mobile home in a park on Lake Huron beach for $40k and they shot up to $150k in a couple years.
 

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True... but tell that to the people who bought at the top. ;)

This is only the beginning though. I expect we'll go below pre-COVID prices before the market finds a bottom. And then we're likely to bump and grind along at those depressed values for quite some time. I wouldn't be surprised it it took 10 years to recover the losses.
I am not at all certain we will see a repeat of the late '80s to circa 2000 in Toronto and Vancouver where it took 10+ years to recover. I think there is more foreign money now that is more inelastic to the global economy. We may need to look at some other world cities of note to see how they reacted at different periods.
 

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People who sold at the top of the home markets made out like bandits. The buyers of their homes are screwed.

The real estate industry wants a return for 40 year mortgages, relax the qualifying amounts, and no down payments.

None of them solve the core problem that the homes prices are 70% too high.

A $1,000,000 home is worth $300,000 when interest rates are 7% or higher, and median wages are in the mid $40,000 range.
 

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People who sold at the top of the home markets made out like bandits. The buyers of their homes are screwed.

The real estate industry wants a return for 40 year mortgages, relax the qualifying amounts, and no down payments.

None of them solve the core problem that the homes prices are 70% too high.

A $1,000,000 home is worth $300,000 when interest rates are 7% or higher, and median wages are in the mid $40,000 range.
What's more concerning is we let real estate be a a big portion of our economy. The right thing to do is let this market correct but will be painful short term for everyone. Do our governments have the [email protected]$$ to do the right thing? We must find other industries to spur economic growth. Real estate is not sustainable!
 

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This link is dated to 2017 (situation is actually much worse) provides some context of the idiocy that has reigned since the financial crisis. Easy credit and relaxed mortgage terms blew the doors off that barn. The piper really has to be paid and it could be very painful to the economy and our GDP. I somehow doubt the government and BoC has the balls to send housing prices back to the trend line.
 

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Do our governments have the [email protected]$$ to do the right thing?
problem is [email protected]$$ in doing the right thing and letting the market find a sustainable normal flies in the face of getting votes!
If a politician promises to "do the right thing" raise interest rates and induce a recession, then they won't get elected. It's very simple really. that's why it probably won't happen.
 

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problem is [email protected]$$ in doing the right thing and letting the market find a sustainable normal flies in the face of getting votes!
If a politician promises to "do the right thing" raise interest rates and induce a recession, then they won't get elected. It's very simple really. that's why it probably won't happen.
The federal election will be in 2025. I think BoC will increase the rates until the middle of 2024 or inflation is around 2% whichever comes first.
 
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