[londoncalling]

75 or 100 There is no meeting in August and the Sept meeting is later in the month on the 21st.

I was aware that the next meeting is in September. It is why I know I will get the August rate correct. I would have used an emoji but for some reason or other that function is not working for me on the forum at this time.

 

[MrBlackhill]

I currently get 3.90% annualized interests in my HISA if I let my money sit there for only 90 days.

I never hold cash other than for the big yearly expenses, so I'm using this HISA by chunks of 90 days for those upcoming expenses.

 

[james4beach]

The Fed did a moderate rate hike today.

The market is reacting like we are now back to easy monetary conditions. And maybe we are ... the Fed funds rate is still providing monetary stimulus.

 

[MrBlackhill]

Yield curve is inverted and the clock is ticking.

 

[Covariance]

The Fed did a moderate rate hike today.

The market is reacting like we are now back to easy monetary conditions. And maybe we are ... the Fed funds rate is still providing monetary stimulus.

Participants recognize it could have been a lot more hawkish. 75 and a recognition that demand is slowing is a lot better than 100 with the blinkers on.

 

[james4beach]

Anyone think interest rates may have topped out here?

The 10 year bond yield has been plummeting.

 

[Gator13]

I think they have likely peaked and that they might even start to drop.

 

[MrBlackhill]

Anyone think interest rates may have topped out here?

The 10 year bond yield has been plummeting.

Yes because the yield curve is inverted.

Policy rates will still be increased due to the psychological effect, but otherwise these were the best long-term yields you could have a few months ago.

Canada Government Bonds - Yields Curve

Canada Government Bonds and Yields Curve. Updated charts and tables, agencies ratings, spread comparisons, current prices.

www.worldgovernmentbonds.com

 

[nathan79]

Anyone think interest rates may have topped out here?

The 10 year bond yield has been plummeting.

Depends what interest rate you mean, and maybe.

Central banks will keep hiking, but they may slow the pace of the hikes. I expect at least one more large-ish hike (either .50 or .75). Then will probably hike by minimum .25 at each meeting until inflation is under 3%. That could be at least 6-9 months from now, IMO. A lot depends on what happens with the war, supply chains and whether the hikes are effective at taming inflation, but that's how I see it.

 

[hfp75]

I think BoC will raise rate at the next meeting another .75-1%, then we have up to another 0.75% up before we are truly done... that top rate will not last and then start to drop, but it will not drop fast...... which will draw out the pain from this fast rise.....

I think the pain from this quick rise in rates will last 2-3 Yrs....

 

[Covariance]

Anyone think interest rates may have topped out here?

The 10 year bond yield has been plummeting.

No. As I expect short term rates to go higher. Longer terms are more complex and a longer answer is needed

 

[MrBlackhill]

No. As I expect short term rates to go higher. Longer terms are more complex and a longer answer is needed

I agree with you even though I said "yes" because it depends at which term we are looking, but since @james4beach pointed 10-year bond yield as an example, I don't think the 10-year bond yield will go back above 3%, but I agree that the very short term bond yields (less than 1 year) will still increase and maybe reach 3.5%. Not sure it'll touch 4% though. But I honestly don't know what I'm talking about.

 

[james4beach]

No. As I expect short term rates to go higher. Longer terms are more complex and a longer answer is needed

Sorry I should have clarified, I meant to ask about longer term interest rates: do you think the 10 year yield may have already peaked?

Some analysts think we're going to see the 10 year treasury bond yield go towards 4% or even 5% due to chronic inflation.

 

[sags]

The stock markets often react positively the day the Fed announcement is made.

After pondering all the possibilities, the next day is usually when the big dump happens.

If stocks go up tomorrow......it would be a good indicator of a possible bottom was reached......at least for now.

 

[Covariance]

Sorry I should have clarified, I meant to ask about longer term interest rates: do you think the 10 year yield may have already peaked?

Some analysts think we're going to see the 10 year treasury bond yield go towards 4% or even 5% due to chronic inflation.

I’m not convinced inflation will drop as quickly as predicted in the futures market for the Fed (FFR). If this is the case I would expect volatility in the 10 and a higher yield as part thereof.
It’s obviously an evolving question and each data point is important. Tomorrow we get PCE.

 

[james4beach]

I’m not convinced inflation will drop as quickly as predicted in the futures market for the Fed (FFR). If this is the case I would expect volatility in the 10 and a higher yield as part thereof.
It’s obviously an evolving question and each data point is important. Tomorrow we get PCE.

And let's remember that QT really steps up in September. That could be a game-changer in the bond market.

Unless the Federal Reserve chickens out of QT, which I also think is possible.

 

[MrBlackhill]

I've just read real estate stats for July 2022 on Montreal Island.

Prices are up somewhere around +7% from July 2021. Prices are down somewhere around -4% from peak month (which was April 2022). Though sales are down by -15% to -40%.

Median prices for plex are still up +35% in my area inside Montreal from when I bought in May 2019, which is about +10% CAGR. Prices can drop -25% before I start losing money. I don't think they will. Montreal's bubble is much smaller than Toronto & Vancouver.

 

[sags]

Home prices in the GTA are down massively, but look at where the prices still are.

They are still way too high for average people, especially with higher interest rates.

A 5 year fixed rate mortgage is already 5.3% and heading towards 7%.

People who have to renew their mortgages are looking at huge monthly payment increases.

People with variable rate mortgages will only pay the interest on the debt.

How are the banks and lenders going to handle people who are "underwater" on their homes ?

 

[Gator13]

^ Thanks for sharing. Which website is that from?

 

[sags]

Toronto Regional Real Estate Board.

Lots of graphs and charts there.

https://trreb.ca/files/market-stats/housing-charts/TREB_Housing_Market_Charts-July_2022.pdf