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You should have your 6 month daily chart of TQQQ. Notice that it peaked on 2/19 @118.8 then came the crash. The bottom was 3/23 @32.27. Then it began to recover, and climbed steadily until it peaked 5/12 @78.13.

Correlate that to the TTM Squeeze chart. The TTM Squeeze is a momentum indicator. When momentum is positive and increasing the bars are light blue. Positive but slowing down, dark blue. Negative and increasing, red. Negative but becoming more positive, yellow.

The buy signal is when the bars turn from red to yellow. I like to wait for a second yellow bar to buy, and I like to see the RSI coming off the bottom, from below the lower line. This shows that the market is oversold and there is plenty of room for a run up. A good trade shows both signals although not necessarily at the same time. I don't insist on the RSI signal but I feel better if it confirms the squeeze.

Once I buy, I set a stop loss just below the low. Most of the time this is not necessary but maybe once in 4 or 5 times I get stopped out. Usually this is followed by another buy signal a few days later. If you are cautious make a small buy.

Once the price moves up you can raise your stop to the break even. At this point I will make a second buy. Notice that at this point the first buy is at least break even and therefore risk free. If the price goes up some more you can raise the stop to where the second buy is break even and the first shows a guaranteed profit. At this point I might venture a third buy. This is a very cautious low risk way to trade a trend.

As for the question of when to sell. I will keep raising my stoploss to the last support point and wait to get stopped out. I don't believe I, or anyone else can predict the market. However there are a few things that happen over and over and one of them is a 50% retracement. You see it on charts all the time, when something radical happens like the big sell off we just had, the price will often rebound 50%. In this case 50% of the move would take us to 75.53. I decided if TQQQ hit 75 it would be a good time to sell and await developments. If it turned out to be a bear market rally I had a nice profit, but if the price continued to climb I could always get back in. You may have noticed I hate to take risks and I hate to lose money even on a sure thing trade. 50% on my money in less than 2 months is good fishing and an opportunity like this comes along 2 or 3 times a year in TQQQ alone. A bold trader could make multiples of that.

Take the time to study the chart and apply what I said, go back over the years and see how often the same trade has worked out. The more I study this thing the more I see in it. Paper trade it a few times until you are convinced it works. The same method works with lots of other stocks and ETFs, as long as they move their can and give you some decent trends. Some stocks are too volatile and others are too dull, but there are hundreds of possibilities. Someone who was savvy with computers could search them out with some kind of search program. If you find anything good I would love to hear about it. In the mean time good luck and good trading.
(y)Thank you. I will practice and paper trade for a few times. I find it safer to swing trade highly popular stocks. I keep the account size small so that I am not too stressed if I lost money. I had briefly tried SQQQ but felt it was way too risky.
 

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I know this isn't for everybody. Have read interviews and bios of dozens of successful traders and investors and one thing that stands out is no two of them think the same way or invest the same way. You have to find a method that fits your personality and psychology. It happens that I am drawn to the technical approach even though I am 'math challenged'. So I go by the pretty pictures on the charts. Others have a completely different approach. There is no right or wrong as long as your approach works for you. I don't even sneer at the astrologers and Elliot Wave theorists even though those approaches look totally bogus to me. Some people see merit in them and use them as a framework for their own analysis. Whether it works because of the stars or waves, or because they have developed a feel for market action I leave to the psychologists.

So, I can understand if my approach leaves you cold. I would expect most people to see it that way. What is a bit surprising is how many people reject anything new without even looking at it. They say they want to be more successful, but want keep doing the same old thing. They don't seem to see that if you keep doing the same thing as everyone else you will keep getting the same results. If you want to get better you have to learn new things and even go against what you think you already know. I have had to revise my way of thinking many times over the years and I know it is not easy but it is the only way to learn and grow.
Rusty, great post.
Thanks for sharing your strategy and your process.
How concerned are you that making the formula public will affect its success?
 

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I no longer worry about that since I have been talking about this trade now for 2 years and in all that time only 2 people have even bothered to look at it.

TQQQ trades 50,000 to 100,000 shares a day. And there are lots of other stocks and ETFs that could be traded the same way. Nobody cares about our little trades.
 

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I no longer worry about that since I have been talking about this trade now for 2 years and in all that time only 2 people have even bothered to look at it.
Plus there are many, many technical schemes out there for day and/or swing trading that adding one more really won't change anything. If I had more time to spend on it I'd likely be doing more short term trades as well.
 

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If anyone looks into this and has any thoughts good or bad I would like to hear your feedback. Also, if you find any other stocks or ETFs where this approach works well let us know. If someone could make up a program to search for suitable stocks it would be great.
 

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Rusty, I have been reading a lot on the TTM squeeze lately. I even checked out the seminars by the founder Mr. John Carter on youtube. However, his TTM squeeze stresses on the red dots. According to him the red dots mark energy building up. The first green dot after the reds suggest the releasing of energy and therefore larger (volatile) price action. I wonder if you have studied the red dots? What made you choose yellow bars instead of dots as indicators for entering the market? Thanks.
 

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I don't know a lot about the TA aspects of the trade, but one issue that would worry me is the use of TQQQ as the vehicle (instead of say QQQ). These triple return ETFs and other exotic ones (like XIV) have a tendency to crash and burn just at the wrong time. The stop-loss becomes vital here. Or one has to keep the size of the position very small, in which case I would prefer to use QQQ (triple in size) since one can hold the trade for longer with a better chance of breaking even.
 

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I'm getting nervous about TQQQ as well. This has become too popular. I hear it at CMF, and I hear people talk about easy money using it at other message boards I look at sometimes.

It's too popular, "too easy". If I had to bet, I would bet that something bad is going to happen to the TQQQ/SQQQ pair. And it will probably be novel and interesting (it has to be, actually, otherwise you would foresee it coming).

I knew XIV was bad news too, but it lasted for another 3 years returning 50% per year, until - pow! I actually bought some in my US retirement plan after it blew up and crashed 90%+ and I still lost a bit of money!
 

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I'm getting nervous about TQQQ as well. This has become too popular. I hear it at CMF, and I hear people talk about easy money using it at other message boards I look at sometimes.

It's too popular, "too easy". If I had to bet, I would bet that something bad is going to happen to the TQQQ/SQQQ pair. And it will probably be novel and interesting (it has to be, actually, otherwise you would foresee it coming).

I knew XIV was bad news too, but it lasted for another 3 years returning 50% per year, until - pow! I actually bought some in my US retirement plan after it blew up and crashed 90%+ and I still lost a bit of money!
And it's tough to take when you have a trade that otherwise should have been profitable (or at least a scratch) and then voila, because of some technical issue with how the underlying is managed, it blows up.
 

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Rusty, I have been reading a lot on the TTM squeeze lately. I even checked out the seminars by the founder Mr. John Carter on youtube. However, his TTM squeeze stresses on the red dots. According to him the red dots mark energy building up. The first green dot after the reds suggest the releasing of energy and therefore larger (volatile) price action. I wonder if you have studied the red dots? What made you choose yellow bars instead of dots as indicators for entering the market? Thanks.
That is who I got it from. Tried trading the breakout ('red dots') and never got anyplace. Sometimes it worked, sometimes it didn't. Carter doesn't use it much anymore, at least, a few years ago when I was a regular at his web site, he wasn't using it much. But, I had it on my charts and eventually noticed how the different colored bars corresponded to chart movements and even anticipated them. So I started paper trading and then about 2 years ago started trading the TTM squeeze with real money. Tried many different stocks but the TQQQ eventually rose to the top as "the old reliable". So far as I know, nobody uses it the way I do not even John Carter. But if you work with it for a while you will be impressed, especially if you use some trend lines and candlestick patterns with it. I gave the simple version anyone can understand. I expect everyone will see it a little different and develop their own insights and methods in ways that suit their understanding and personality. I started with some tiny trades and as time went on, developed more confidence in the indicators and in myself, now I consider it nearly foolproof as long as you keep your stoploss orders up to date.
I wish there were a dozen securities to trade that work as well as the TQQQ. I'm no computer programmer so I have to peruse around looking at random charts one by one hoping to find a winner. If there was some way to do a search that would identify stocks as soon as the first daily yellow bar turned up there would be some good trades.
 

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I'm getting nervous about TQQQ as well. This has become too popular. I hear it at CMF, and I hear people talk about easy money using it at other message boards I look at sometimes.

It's too popular, "too easy". If I had to bet, I would bet that something bad is going to happen to the TQQQ/SQQQ pair. And it will probably be novel and interesting (it has to be, actually, otherwise you would foresee it coming).

I knew XIV was bad news too, but it lasted for another 3 years returning 50% per year, until - pow! I actually bought some in my US retirement plan after it blew up and crashed 90%+ and I still lost a bit of money!
I would be interested in seeing any discussions by people using the TTM squeeze. I don't know anyone who uses it besides John Carter, his students and me. And I use it differently than they do. Where are these discussions?
As far as TQQQ blowing up, I don't believe in any of them, that is why I always keep a tight stoploss. If it blows we will just have to look for something else.
 

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TQQQ triple leveraged? Why only 3x? Why not 6x? 10x? May as well. From 19 Feb to 16 Mar this lost almost 70% of its value. And if you actually held this in February, your returns are far lagging the unleveraged QQQ, which is nearly back to even while TQQQ is still sitting on a 33% loss. But if it worked out, then full credit. I'd be leaving a 3x leveraged vehicle now though, these things have a way of never coming back to all time highs.

I prefer my more standard play - into low debt or market leading cyclicals where markets are quickly balancing or moving into deficits in a rapid fashion. Oil, nat gas, lumber, base metals. Also financials, which are trading at huge discounts. It doesn't make sense to me to pay through the nose for tech growth.

This strategy is working well for me. I am definitely now up on my investments year to date maybe 2-3% while markets are down 10-12%. These opportunities only come along once a decade. I can buy overpriced tech at any time. I have planned exit points but they are more likely to come 6-9 months off once better vaccine announcements are being made.
 

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TQQQ triple leveraged? Why only 3x? Why not 6x? 10x? May as well. From 19 Feb to 16 Mar this lost almost 70% of its value. And if you actually held this in February, your returns are far lagging the unleveraged QQQ, which is nearly back to even while TQQQ is still sitting on a 33% loss. But if it worked out, then full credit. I'd be leaving a 3x leveraged vehicle now though, these things have a way of never coming back to all time highs.

I prefer my more standard play - into low debt or market leading cyclicals where markets are quickly balancing or moving into deficits in a rapid fashion. Oil, nat gas, lumber, base metals. Also financials, which are trading at huge discounts. It doesn't make sense to me to pay through the nose for tech growth.

This strategy is working well for me. I am definitely now up on my investments year to date maybe 2-3% while markets are down 10-12%. These opportunities only come along once a decade. I can buy overpriced tech at any time. I have planned exit points but they are more likely to come 6-9 months off once better vaccine announcements are being made.
But I didn't own it in February and early March, that is the point. You just gave an excellent reason why buy and hold does not work. The result would have been the same if you bought the S&P except gains, and losses would be smaller. Since I avoid losses and like gains, the leveraged product suits me. There is a certain drag or long term reduction of price because of the cost of leverage but since I don't hold long term this does not concern me.
If you read my posts you would know I bought on March 20 and sold May 11 during which time it doubled. I see now I was a fraidy cat and should have held on, so now I am trying to get in again. Had a buy order in yesterday @ 73, but it went to 73.38 then took off upward. Today I am going to try again.
I know this kind of trading is not for everybody. And this site tends to attract conservative buy and hold types. Wish I could join them. I wish I had so much capital I could live well on a return of 4% or less but I can't so I have to find something that works for me. You have to find a world view that makes sense to you and a method of investing that suits you. All I can tell you is what works for me.
 
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