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I would like to hear your thoughts on the multiple crashes going into 2022.
The WHO is talking about another wave coming.
I question the value in trying to speculate on any of this. Nobody knows how the future will play out. The market could crash for the rest of this year, or could hit new all time highs soon, and never go lower. There is no way to know.
 

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9% on microsoft in 5-6 weeks and 20% on Amazon ,In fact Amazon has covered all the crappy losses on my Canadian stocks
 

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Which cyclicals do you suggest?
I don't suggest any of them for others, but I am in Teck and WEF in addition to oil SU/CNQ. All of these companies were trading down 75%+ from where you would expect at a reasonable valuation. Although a lot are now up 25-100% for me so maybe a lot of the easy money has been made. CNQ shares at $11? SU at $15.5? Once in a decade or more opportunity there. But I will remember the volatility - they were trading up and down 20% a day, even more intra-day. There was no picking the bottom - it would might only be there for minutes. You had to close your eyes to buy. Crazy volume. I must have been drinking at the time.
 

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I'm doing well with TQQQ. It bottomed at 32.27 on March 23 and today it closed at 63.51 and it was 70.47 yesterday, in other words, a clean double if you caught the whole move. I didn't get all of it but I got a nice chunk and it's not over yet.
I have given details before of how you know when to get in and when to get out and got nothing but a razzing so I won't bore you again. Unless you want to ask for the details. It's not very difficult or complicated.
 

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I question the value in trying to speculate on any of this. Nobody knows how the future will play out. The market could crash for the rest of this year, or could hit new all time highs soon, and never go lower. There is no way to know.
My focus is on probabilities not possibilities.
 

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Data from sentiment trader.com
Small trader call buying the 2 weeks ending April 26 2020 was @ 43%. When the market topped in 07 & @ the all time small trader call buying set the all time high both times @ 47%
My current bet is the opposite of the small trader.
 

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...in these yo-yo markets?
Follow up on my post #24 Jargey if you or anyone else is listening. Closed my TQQQ trade this morning @75.35. Started buying on 3/20 @ 37.26 so, a clean double. But, I did not buy all at once. I bought in stages only when previous purchases showed a profit, and when I could set a stop loss above break even. That meant I never risked more than $1000 but it also meant I made about 50% profit instead of 100%. $23,651.55 on 1000 shares which cost me an average of $51.70. I have been doing this same trade now for 2 years and have learned to have confidence in it.

If you want to know how you can do the same I will be happy to tell you.
 

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Hello everyone, I have been daytrading for the last 6 months. I've been trading the markets for 25 years but i was getting bored after I retired over 4 years ago and decided to daytrade because a friend of mine is also retired and does it and does well. I find that if you follow about 20 stocks, selling short can be volitile but it's where you make most money. I wouldn't recommend it if you don't know the stock very well or you don't know the stock status, like what happened that day, earnings and stuff like that. I'd love it if there was a chat room, especially for pennystock trading, knowing which stocks will have high volue that day. I've traded on penny stocks and the most i made in a day was 2000 dollars because i am afraid of waiting to long to see if it goes up or down. There are a lot of chatrooms online but it's american stocks, and i don't like to trade on the american markets. I did it a few times and the exchange of the dollar and the fee my brokerage charges for the conversion is crazy.
 

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You can open a US dollar account and trade American stocks without any fees or exchange other than the normal brokerage fee. I use TD WebBroker and Think or Swim trading platform, I pay $7 commission, I'm sure there are other brokerages that have US dollar accounts.
 

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You can open a US dollar account and trade American stocks without any fees or exchange other than the normal brokerage fee. I use TD WebBroker and Think or Swim trading platform, I pay $7 commission, I'm sure there are other brokerages that have US dollar accounts.
Hi, I have been following posts at this forum for a couple of years. I read your post about sold all your TQQQ yesterday. This made me decide to sell my TQQQ today (at $77.60). I am very amazed at your ability to time the momentum of the stock by using TTM squeeze. I would be very appreciated if you could elaborate a bit on this topic. thank you.
 

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Hi, I have been following posts at this forum for a couple of years. I read your post about sold all your TQQQ yesterday. This made me decide to sell my TQQQ today (at $77.60). I am very amazed at your ability to time the momentum of the stock by using TTM squeeze. I would be very appreciated if you could elaborate a bit on this topic. thank you.
Be glad to. First of all do you have Think or Swim with TTM Squeeze on the chart page? It will be very easy to see if you do, I don't think I can explain it if you don't. I use a candlestick chart. On my charts I have the TTM Squeeze, RSI, and a 10 and 50 moving average. Normally I use a daily chart 6 months long. I don't know about other trading platforms or software I always use ToS on TD WebBroker. You can download ToS for free and paper trade it without an account and at no cost. If you need help setting it up let me know.
 

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Rusty... run us through it....

I have been considering selling all my equities and just sitting..... few months of watching never hurt anyone... plus, I think of all the QE and that its wearing off and we will need another trillion or two, plus all the unemployed... Markets cant hold this all time high.... there are no profits to support this... its just the US Fed buying SPY / ect pushing things.... cant last forever.....
 

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Hi, I have been following posts at this forum for a couple of years. I read your post about sold all your TQQQ yesterday. This made me decide to sell my TQQQ today (at $77.60). I am very amazed at your ability to time the momentum of the stock by using TTM squeeze. I would be very appreciated if you could elaborate a bit on this topic. thank you.
For those who don't follow TQQQ it peaked at 78.13 on the open this morning and fell to 72.09 at the close. Last price in after hours trading 69.97. I started buying March 20 @ 37, $5 off the bottom and sold out yesterday @75.35, less than $3 from the top. I started talking about this trade on this board a year ago, maybe more. So far Machu Picchu is the only one to show any interest. I guess the rest of you aren't interested in doubling your money in under 2 months.
 

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Rusty... run us through it....

I have been considering selling all my equities and just sitting..... few months of watching never hurt anyone... plus, I think of all the QE and that its wearing off and we will need another trillion or two, plus all the unemployed... Markets cant hold this all time high.... there are no profits to support this... its just the US Fed buying SPY / ect pushing things.... cant last forever.....
Do you have ToS with the indicators I mentioned?
 

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Be glad to. First of all do you have Think or Swim with TTM Squeeze on the chart page? It will be very easy to see if you do, I don't think I can explain it if you don't. I use a candlestick chart. On my charts I have the TTM Squeeze, RSI, and a 10 and 50 moving average. Normally I use a daily chart 6 months long. I don't know about other trading platforms or software I always use ToS on TD WebBroker. You can download ToS for free and paper trade it without an account and at no cost. If you need help setting it up let me know.
Yes. I have followed your previous posts and had set up Think or Swim with TTM Squeeze. I am a novice in self-directed trading but am learning everyday. I find that TQQQ is good for swing trading.
 

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Yes. I have followed your previous posts and had set up Think or Swim with TTM Squeeze. I am a novice in self-directed trading but am learning everyday. I find that TQQQ is good for swing trading.
I use " 180d 4h ". But when you look at the TTM color today is still a small light blue (yesterday dark blue?). I am curious how you had decided to sell TQQQ even though the color bar hasn't changed?
 

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You should have your 6 month daily chart of TQQQ. Notice that it peaked on 2/19 @118.8 then came the crash. The bottom was 3/23 @32.27. Then it began to recover, and climbed steadily until it peaked 5/12 @78.13.

Correlate that to the TTM Squeeze chart. The TTM Squeeze is a momentum indicator. When momentum is positive and increasing the bars are light blue. Positive but slowing down, dark blue. Negative and increasing, red. Negative but becoming more positive, yellow.

The buy signal is when the bars turn from red to yellow. I like to wait for a second yellow bar to buy, and I like to see the RSI coming off the bottom, from below the lower line. This shows that the market is oversold and there is plenty of room for a run up. A good trade shows both signals although not necessarily at the same time. I don't insist on the RSI signal but I feel better if it confirms the squeeze.

Once I buy, I set a stop loss just below the low. Most of the time this is not necessary but maybe once in 4 or 5 times I get stopped out. Usually this is followed by another buy signal a few days later. If you are cautious make a small buy.

Once the price moves up you can raise your stop to the break even. At this point I will make a second buy. Notice that at this point the first buy is at least break even and therefore risk free. If the price goes up some more you can raise the stop to where the second buy is break even and the first shows a guaranteed profit. At this point I might venture a third buy. This is a very cautious low risk way to trade a trend.

As for the question of when to sell. I will keep raising my stoploss to the last support point and wait to get stopped out. I don't believe I, or anyone else can predict the market. However there are a few things that happen over and over and one of them is a 50% retracement. You see it on charts all the time, when something radical happens like the big sell off we just had, the price will often rebound 50%. In this case 50% of the move would take us to 75.53. I decided if TQQQ hit 75 it would be a good time to sell and await developments. If it turned out to be a bear market rally I had a nice profit, but if the price continued to climb I could always get back in. You may have noticed I hate to take risks and I hate to lose money even on a sure thing trade. 50% on my money in less than 2 months is good fishing and an opportunity like this comes along 2 or 3 times a year in TQQQ alone. A bold trader could make multiples of that.

Take the time to study the chart and apply what I said, go back over the years and see how often the same trade has worked out. The more I study this thing the more I see in it. Paper trade it a few times until you are convinced it works. The same method works with lots of other stocks and ETFs, as long as they move their can and give you some decent trends. Some stocks are too volatile and others are too dull, but there are hundreds of possibilities. Someone who was savvy with computers could search them out with some kind of search program. If you find anything good I would love to hear about it. In the mean time good luck and good trading.
 

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So far Machu Picchu is the only one to show any interest. I guess the rest of you aren't interested in doubling your money in under 2 months.
I would say that's right: I am not interested in doubling my money in under 2 months.

Short term technical-based trading is one of those things that works... until it doesn't. If this was a viable investment method, institutions and mutual funds would do it too. Pension funds would not make long term investments that only grow at 6% when they can get the higher returns you believe are possible.

Rusty, if this kind of strategy offered a good risk vs reward, why aren't pension funds doing it? And shouldn't there be mutual funds (something like TD Triple Tech Technical Trader) that do it, showing excellent long term performance?

In my opinion, the pensions funds aren't doing it, because the methods do not succeed in the long term. And there are no mutual funds like TD Triple Tech Technical Trader for the same reason. There aren't even any hedge funds that do this and show strong long term results.
 

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Who says they don't? There are hundreds of hedge funds that claim outstanding results using even more esoteric trading methods. That is one thing. The second is, if you are trading a billion dollar fund you just can't jump in and out of the market on a minute's notice the way we little guys can. I have no problem buying and selling 100 or 1000 shares of practically anything, try that with 1,000,000 shares and see what happens.

I don't blame you for preferring buy and hold. I would too if I had the money. In the meantime I have this one trade that took me 20 years to figure out. I don't take undue risks, I never risk even 1% of my account on a trade, and so far it has worked out well. If it bombs 3 or 4 times I will have to think again, but even then it will not hurt me too bad.
 

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I would say that's right: I am not interested in doubling my money in under 2 months.

Short term technical-based trading is one of those things that works... until it doesn't. If this was a viable investment method, institutions and mutual funds would do it too. Pension funds would not make long term investments that only grow at 6% when they can get the higher returns you believe are possible.

Rusty, if this kind of strategy offered a good risk vs reward, why aren't pension funds doing it? And shouldn't there be mutual funds (something like TD Triple Tech Technical Trader) that do it, showing excellent long term performance?

In my opinion, the pensions funds aren't doing it, because the methods do not succeed in the long term. And there are no mutual funds like TD Triple Tech Technical Trader for the same reason. There aren't even any hedge funds that do this and show strong long term results.
I know this isn't for everybody. Have read interviews and bios of dozens of successful traders and investors and one thing that stands out is no two of them think the same way or invest the same way. You have to find a method that fits your personality and psychology. It happens that I am drawn to the technical approach even though I am 'math challenged'. So I go by the pretty pictures on the charts. Others have a completely different approach. There is no right or wrong as long as your approach works for you. I don't even sneer at the astrologers and Elliot Wave theorists even though those approaches look totally bogus to me. Some people see merit in them and use them as a framework for their own analysis. Whether it works because of the stars or waves, or because they have developed a feel for market action I leave to the psychologists.

So, I can understand if my approach leaves you cold. I would expect most people to see it that way. What is a bit surprising is how many people reject anything new without even looking at it. They say they want to be more successful, but want keep doing the same old thing. They don't seem to see that if you keep doing the same thing as everyone else you will keep getting the same results. If you want to get better you have to learn new things and even go against what you think you already know. I have had to revise my way of thinking many times over the years and I know it is not easy but it is the only way to learn and grow.
 
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