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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
No doubt about it. The US withdrawal in Afghanistan is a total disaster.

People are blaming President Biden, as I think they rightly should. He is after all the Commander in Chief.

He signed off on the plan, but the real failure is in the US military leadership. What kind of a plan for withdrawal........is no plan at all ?

Canada now has to scramble to get people out, and has limited means to do it. In fact......virtually no means to do it effectively.

The Taliban is doing as expected, hunting down anyone who aided the allies and torturing and killing them.

They have had public executions in front of thousands forced to watch. They are dragging 12 year old girls off to marry Taliban fighters.

Trump's peace deal was a joke. You never give a concrete timeline for withdrawal. It should all depend on what the enemy does.

When the US finally left........they not only took out the 2500 troops, but also 15,000 contractors and sub-contractors who ran the airport and infrastructure.

They didn't even leave security forces, air traffic controllers or maintenance crews at the airport. So there was no way for people to get out by air.

Small wonder the Afghans gave up when they saw that. They realized they were going to fight to the death or run and hide as best they could.

This is perhaps the greatest failure of security, intelligence, and the US military since 9/11.
 
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It was announced long time ago that May 1 troops will begin withdrawal.
Canada failed to prepare.
The blame for a fate of those who helped Canada is entirely on Canadian government and military.
There was over 6 months of time to prepare prior to May 1 (and additional 3 months before this disaster) to decrease amount of staff to minimum, to help those who worked with Canadian forces.
Attempts to aid those Afghan interpreters who worked with Canadian Forces have been going on for 3 years now. The voices were becoming louder and louder over last 3 months.
Government and military completely ignored that. Their ineptitude cost a lot of blood.

The rise of Taliban was unfortunately predictables. US military messed up. How do you pull entire military before withdrawing everyone else? Withdrawal of all allied staff, forces, contractors, and those who helped them should have been done prior to giving up control over the region. Major screwup
 

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The rise of Taliban was unfortunately predictables. US military messed up. How do you pull entire military before withdrawing everyone else? Withdrawal of all allied staff, forces, contractors, and those who helped them should have been done prior to giving up control over the region. Major screwup
You're making the assumption that they intended to withdraw allied staff, forces and contractors. That's wrong. The withdrawal was done like this by design, not by failure of military planning.
 

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The British invaded Afghanistan in the 19th century and it was a disaster. Russia tried in the 20th century and it was such a disaster it helped bring down the Soviet Union. The US tried in the 21st century and look what happened. I hope Canada at least gets its people out in 1 piece but given the ineptitude of the present government who knows. Was there a clean way to end the war and leave the country in good shape? I wish there was but suspect it was going to be a mess no matter what anyone did.
 

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The only way to have won that war would be to commit to half a century of occupation and an even larger allocation of resources than had already been done. Not sure what the end game for the Taliban/Afghanistan is.... eventually colour-revolutioned? Perpetual backwater?

I saw an interview on CBC with an Afghan Canadian talking about his remaining family in Afghanistan. They are hiding the young women in their family in a bunker in the basement of their house, because the expectation is the Taliban will take any 'of age' (>13 years old) girls who are unmarried as 'wives'. Not sure why anyone is calling it marriage. That is rape and sexual slavery.
 

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Transcript of Taliban’s first news conference in Kabul
Taliban spokesperson addresses the public in first conference following the armed group’s takeover of Afghanistan.
The Taliban in Afghanistan said on Tuesday that they wanted peaceful relations with other countries and would respect the rights of women within "the limits of Islam," as they held their first official news briefing since their takeover of Kabul. Taliban leaders also said they won’t seek revenge on those who worked with the Afghan government or foreign countries, saying they would assure the safety of contractors and translators who worked for international forces. "We do not want Afghanistan to be a battlefield any longer," the movement's main spokesman, Zabihullah Mujahid, said.
 

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2151 et seq. and 22 U.S.C. 2751 et seq.). The following countries are designated as major non-NATO allies: Afghanistan (see § 126.1(g) of this subchapter), Argentina, Australia, Bahrain, Egypt, Israel, Japan, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, New Zealand, Pakistan, the Philippines, Republic of Korea, Thailand, and Tunisia.
 

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2151 et seq. and 22 U.S.C. 2751 et seq.). The following countries are designated as major non-NATO allies: Afghanistan (see § 126.1(g) of this subchapter), Argentina, Australia, Bahrain, Egypt, Israel, Japan, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, New Zealand, Pakistan, the Philippines, Republic of Korea, Thailand, and Tunisia.
That was the old Afghan regime. Because NATO will not recognize the Taliban as the legitimate government of the country (for now, at least), that nullifies their inclusion as an ally.
 

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We were warned by the Russians who wasted nine years there. But GWB still gathered the coalition of the willing and marched right in.

Canada joined because we had already rejected going into Iraq so we didn't want to look too uncooperative to the US.
 

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We were warned by the Russians who wasted nine years there. But GWB still gathered the coalition of the willing and marched right in.

Canada joined because we had already rejected going into Iraq so we didn't want to look too uncooperative to the US.
Russia never fought a war in Afghanistan, Soviet Union did.
 

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Russia never fought a war in Afghanistan, Soviet Union did.
True! It wasn't Russia, but USSR... but Americans were warned! Smart countries earn on othe mistakes, stupid want to repeat others' mistakes :)

Russia tried in the 20th century and it was such a disaster it helped bring down the Soviet Union.
Again... Russia didn't participated in any war in Afgan....and it didn't help to bring down USSR, Chernobyl did!
 

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Discussion Starter · #13 · (Edited)
Of course Russians were fighting in Afghanistan. It was a war directed and funded by Moscow, and Gorbachev cut funding and pulled their forces out.

The USSR fall was started by Lech Walesa a Polish union leader. He was awarded a Nobel Peace Prize for his work.
 

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I agree with much of what has been written and researched above. It's all rather depressing. History has often sided with those who have been invaded, rather than the invaders!
Viet Nam was not much different - French, the US, even China had a war with them in the North, but Viet Nam prevailed.
Regarding Afghanistan, there will be a large number of young people who will, at the least, remember what life was when the Taliban were not (fully) in control / power of the country - and I am hoping that that institutional memory will help minimize the extent of the damage that the Taliban will exert.
Hopefully, some of those young soldiers will become leaders who will become more moderate than the older leaders who are seem so single-minded. Perhaps it's all just a pipe-dream tho
 

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What is disturbing is when Biden was asked a few questions about his Afghan program he had no answer but promised to get back to them in a few days.
Really? That is your plan? You haven't worked out what to do but will get back to us in a few days?
It's worth remembering Trump already had a deal made to leave in May with all parties agreeing but Biden reneged at the last minute, just to prevent Trump from being right, now he presents the world with this mess. I don't see how even a yellow dog Democrat can have any faith in the Biden administration after this.
 

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What's interesting is that both Russia and more significantly China are getting much closer to recognizing the Taliban as a legitimate government in Afghanistan - not likely so much because they are in agreement with Taliban policies, but because Afghanistan has a huge amount of mineral riches. I would expect China's government is working the diplomatic channels to get access, quickly, to those mineral riches which it will add to the many annexed/indebted countries that it already has in itsAfghanistan pocket.
I also wonder how quickly the Taliban would be ready to sell Afghanistan's resources to China or anyone else.
 

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What's interesting is that both Russia and more significantly China are getting much closer to recognizing the Taliban as a legitimate government in Afghanistan - not likely so much because they are in agreement with Taliban policies, but because Afghanistan has a huge amount of mineral riches. I would expect China's government is working the diplomatic channels to get access, quickly, to those mineral riches which it will add to the many annexed/indebted countries that it already has in itsAfghanistan pocket.
I also wonder how quickly the Taliban would be ready to sell Afghanistan's resources to China or anyone else.
Nothing new there.
this one is from 2011
As foreign troops withdraw, will foreign miners move in? They’ve known of Afghanistan’s mineral wealth for a century but it hasn’t been safe or easy enough to extract it. Now Western companies, including Australian miners, are behind the geopolitical eight-ball as China and India lock up mining rights.
 

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Discussion Starter · #18 ·
Past projects have failed, but the Chinese may try again.

I don't think Afghanistan is going to be stable under Taliban rule. There are only about 60,000 of them to secure a wide area.

Tribal conflict will ensue, Iran and other countries will start to move in. One battle in Afghanistan ends and another one begins.
 
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Nothing new there.
I'm suggesting that what is new, is China's aggressive territorial policies, and the extent to which they will go to secure an increasing supply of resources from outside China. They are making many incursions along their borders.
That said, as both you and Sags have indicated, this is not new - and it likely won't end well for China or any other country/army who tries.
 

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Interesting to watch how quickly the online epidemiologists become online foreign affairs experts on afghanistan

I feel like I'm watching a game of telephone unfold. Flying home after 16hrs on station we write a report and brief intel. Intel, who witness very little first hand, collate and redistribute the information to those who need to know. By the time some of the information trickles out the mass media it's a completely different story. Notice how none of the online foreign affairs experts mention al-Qaeda anymore. You forgot about them didn't you

People seem much more likely to accept and spread second hand information when they don't have first hand information
 
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