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Discussion Starter #1 (Edited)
There will be a Federal election coming on October 21, 2019 and the parties are entering their "unofficial" campaign mode.

The current makeup of the Parliament is = 336 MPs

Liberals = 180

Conservatives = 97

NDP = 41

BQ = 10

Independent = 4

Green Party = 1

Co-Operative Commonwealth Confederation = 1

People's Party = 1


The polls show the Conservatives slightly ahead of the Liberals and Justin Trudeau slightly ahead of Andrew Scheer, so it is basically a toss up at this point.

When I look at the numbers of MPs, I think the polls become basically meaningless. It will be the voting in individual ridings that decide the election.

To defeat the Liberals, the Conservatives will have to "swing" 40 or more seats from Liberal to Conservative.

The NDP has lost support in Quebec and 15 seats may be up for grabs, but it is unlikely the Conservatives would win many of them.

So..........bottom line. The Conservatives must win a lot of ridings that voted Liberal last election.

Is it possible and in what regions of the country is it likely ?
 

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I predict a Liberal minority or possibly even a slight majority. Given Lavalingate the Conservatives would normally be expected to have a majority but Trudeau is blessed with a dream opposition - someone from the NDPs whose manner of dress screams religious symbolism and a Conservative leader who couldn't take a firm stance if his life depended on it and who will run for cover every time the Liberals play the virtue signal game.
 

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Discussion Starter #4 (Edited)
So according to the poll, the NDP will likely lose most or all of their seats in Quebec, with some perhaps to the Bloc Quebec.

The Bloc could become kingmakers in a minority government..........either Conservative or Liberal.

Canadians don't mind minority governments.
 

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So according to the poll, the NDP will likely lose most or all of their seats in Quebec, with some perhaps to the Bloc Quebec.

The Bloc could become kingmakers in a minority government..........either Conservative or Liberal.

Canadians don't mind minority governments.
Government screws up stuff, minority governments screw up less, because they have less power.
 

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Not necessarily IMO. The downside is a government prostituting themselves to the kingmaker to stay in power at all costs. Like we see the ndp/green doing in BC.
 

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Very true in BC. The NDP are falling all over themselves to keep Weaver happy. The only two risks the NDP took were the: 1) continuation of Site C hydro-electric dam, and 2) approval of the LNG project... both of which they were pretty sure the opposition Liberals could not vote No and prostitute themselves. The rest of the time, they are stroking whatever they can to give the Greens pleasure.
 

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Very true in BC. The NDP are falling all over themselves to keep Weaver happy. The only two risks the NDP took were the: 1) continuation of Site C hydro-electric dam, and 2) approval of the LNG project... both of which they were pretty sure the opposition Liberals could not vote No and prostitute themselves. The rest of the time, they are stroking whatever they can to give the Greens pleasure.
ar, god help me, i can’t believe i’m defending the ndp, but lets not forget that both of those positions were hugely disfavoured by the greenies
 

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Yes, that is what I am saying. The NDP proceeded despite the Greens, but they also knew the Liberals could not 'reverse' their long standing positions supporting both of these projects, so a positive vote was virtually guaranteed. It was not a 'high risk' gamble on the NDP's part. Weaver expressed his displeasure but at the same time didn't say he was going to risk his own 'kingpin' position by not continuing to support the NDP going forward. Given Weaver is drunk with his power broker position, the NDP wasn't gambling much about a possible 'falling out' with the Greens. Well played on the NDP's part.
 

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Many NDP members in ON are bailing and not running this year.

I think Jugmeat has killed them.

With all Trudeau's troubles Scheer could make big gains in my area but he appears to be such a lightweight that all bets are off.
 

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Not necessarily IMO. The downside is a government prostituting themselves to the kingmaker to stay in power at all costs. Like we see the ndp/green doing in BC.
Even majority governments do that.
The Ontario Liberals gas plant, or "reimbursements" to the teachers unions.
 

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You're a canola grower in Sask. Like all of us, you've just heard about China halting purchase of 40% of Canada's canola.

But today you read this, “We’re going to roll up our sleeves and work with the Chinese officials to demonstrate that canola should continue to flow safely from Canada to China,” Trudeau told a televised news conference in Thunder Bay, Ontario. “This is something we take very seriously ... we are optimistic we are going to be able to make headway this year.”

demonstrate... should... optimistic...headway... this year? :eek2: :eek2:
 

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You're a canola grower in Sask. Like all of us, you've just heard about China halting purchase of 40% of Canada's canola.

But today you read this, “We’re going to roll up our sleeves and work with the Chinese officials to demonstrate that canola should continue to flow safely from Canada to China,” Trudeau told a televised news conference in Thunder Bay, Ontario. “This is something we take very seriously ... we are optimistic we are going to be able to make headway this year.”

demonstrate... should... optimistic...headway... this year? :eek2: :eek2:
He's going to admire their basic dictatorship and swoon until they decide to let our products back in.
 

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Anything can happen.

Think back to the last election. Harper supposedly had it in the bag. Polls said he would have a majority so he he went to see the GG. The stars were aligned. Harper would win a majority, then retire at the top of his gain. Jason Kenny had his leadership campaign team in place ready to go for the gold ring.

Then the niqab debate. Oops...suddenly that projected majority turned into a projected minority. Then the incredibly stupid Barbaric Practices Hotline announcement. Enough of that solid Harper support and undecided support evaporated inside a week or so. That projected majority did turn out to be a majority...but it was for the Liberals. That is how they lost virtually every urban area and did not elect one MP in the maritime provinces.

Same thing could happen again to either party.
 

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Discussion Starter #16 (Edited)
You're a canola grower in Sask. Like all of us, you've just heard about China halting purchase of 40% of Canada's canola.

But today you read this, “We’re going to roll up our sleeves and work with the Chinese officials to demonstrate that canola should continue to flow safely from Canada to China,” Trudeau told a televised news conference in Thunder Bay, Ontario. “This is something we take very seriously ... we are optimistic we are going to be able to make headway this year.”

demonstrate... should... optimistic...headway... this year? :eek2: :eek2:
Yes, this could have all been avoided by a better decision by former AG Jody Wilson - Raybould.

Maybe she could meet with the farmers and tell them all about the "rule of law" and how important her "personal ethics" are to her.

As John Manley said.........there are ways this situation could have been avoided.
 

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What should be done is JT ship our canola growers a few billion for a problem he created. At least Trump takes care of American farmers affected by stupidity.
 

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But JT would have to admit he was accountable for something and he has demonstrated the it is not part of his DNA. He only apologizes for things that happened long before his watch.
 
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