Canadian Money Forum banner

Market Forecasts

530K views 3K replies 111 participants last post by  Nick1357 
#1 · (Edited)
Thought it might be a good idea to have a thread like this. A lot of people have posted their trade ideas and guesses about general market direction, but they've been pretty erratic and scattered.

So, what do you guys think will happen in the markets tomorrow?

I'll start... I think we'll break 1100 again on the S&P in the next few days, VIX spike to 48+. I don't think what Bernanke says will have any significant positive effects tomorrow. I'm monitoring Hurricane Irene, it looks like she's developing into a Category 3 and on a direct path to NYC going into the weekend. NYC released a flood evacuation map and Wall Street is literally going under water (Zone C): http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/downloads/pdf/hurricane_map_english.pdf

In other news, Japan's PM Kan just resigned.
 
#3 ·
I don't think gold has priced in QE3 after the recent drop. I like its upside via fear or inflation, and we're bound to have at least one of them. On the other hand, I don't think the market has priced in non-QE3 yet.

Tomorrow is going to be a wild day. I think the market gets slammed as hard as it did last Thursday. The wildcard is gold. Will it go up with fear, or down with a flight to cash? It's probably good that a big drop happened and shook off the lightweights and latecomers.

Disclosure: I have a GLD call and an SPY put. I think the likelihood of neither of these bets working out is slim. I think the likelihood of one of these bets working out is very high. Both of them working out would be great, but less likely than one or the other.
 
#19 · (Edited)
Disclosure: I have a GLD call and an SPY put. I think the likelihood of neither of these bets working out is slim. I think the likelihood of one of these bets working out is very high. Both of them working out would be great, but less likely than one or the other.
Bet worked out as gold went on a rampage and outperformed the market. I didn't think it wanted to be in the 1700s. I'll need a $4 move up in GLD from here to sell my option at the desired profit.
 
#7 ·
I see that as well, quite ominous. But gold has smashed through all head and shoulders before. Fundamentals and news will drive it more than chart patterns anyways.

I don't think it likes to sit in the 1700s. We may see a test of 1650 support or 1900 resistance. If gold continues its bull run, in the past year usually the second time it goes for a psychological barrier it manages to break through.
 
#6 ·
Lol yeah I didn't mean to be ambiguous... I don't think it matters, the markets are setting up for disappointment so it's bad news either way. Inflation is still way too high to consider securities purchases type QE this early on, and skipping QE in any form will probably be interpreted as withdrawal of support.
 
#8 ·
Maybe you are right, even though I pray you are wrong. :rolleyes:

Yes, higher probability for markets to go down , than to go up. On other hand in Jan/Feb the situation was opposite and marker crushed later.

Gold and miners can go either way, imho 60% they go up , 40% - down.

I just hope that Real return bonds, canadian bonds and short term bonds won't get hit hard as I keep them on RESP portfolio that I'll need in range 2-5 years
 
#9 ·
I read somewhere that in whole US history only 1 time , annual stock market return was negative in 3rd year of the President cycle. Obama should do everything you can in order to lift stock if he want to have a chance to be re-elected.


P.S. sorry, what is it HnS ?
 
#11 ·
I've finally finished doing my analysis before Jackson Hole. Just out of curiosity, did any of you spent some time planning for tomorrow and onward? If so, how long did it took you? I was lit up for the whole week working late.

Here's some connect-the-dot that I find is interesting.

Obama called Warren
Warren has an aha moment
Warren buys BAC
Jackson hole tomorrow.
 
#16 ·
Yeap, I understand it... and until they are working on it imho market will fluctuate back and forth (if we don't have some really bad economical news). In Sep it will depend on what kind of "some form of QE3 ", maybe some form of QE3 in mix with other stimulus.... now we can only speculate....
But for sure if Fed won't find some good program and US will slip to ressession, they will spend much nore money to get out of ressession.
 
#21 · (Edited)
After one entire year, the TSX is basically back where it started from. On September 1, 2010, the TSX was sitting just above the 12,000 mark. Then, from that point until the end of February 2011, it rose more or less continuously to just above 14,000. Then, from March 1, 2011 until now, it dropped more or less continuously, albeit with more volatility, until Friday's close of 12,327.51. YTD, the net result is that the TSX is down 8.30% while the S&P 500 Index has lost 6.43%.

In the past few years, losses in equities have been partially offset, in a balanced portfolio, by gains in bonds but this is not as true today and likely going forward for some time if and when interest rates start to rise.

Also, nobody is predicting a booming economy anytime soon. At best, there might be anemic growth and, at worst, another recession. This will likely result in low returns for equities.

And so, this leads me to ask this question: GIC's anyone?

Also, the Wealthy Barber Returns:

http://www.canadianbusiness.com/article/42235
 
#23 ·
#26 · (Edited)
The US Congressional Budget Office's own estimate is that the U.S. won't fully recover until 2017 and that's using optimistic data. Death of equities is an exaggeration. Being permanently bearish is like betting on the end of mankind. The only time to do that is when there's mass physical disaster (nuclear war, sun burns out, asteroid hits us etc). IMO this is just the beginning of multi-year decline. My gut feeling is that something big (bad) is going to happen this week, I just can't put my finger on it yet.
 
#28 · (Edited)
I think that the something bad that is about to happen is that New York City gets wiped out by a hurricane.:eek: We will all wake up on Monday morning to the news that the NYSE is under water--quite literally this time!!:eek:

CNN and the rest of the media have been ringing the alarm bells that life as we have known it is about to be wiped out by Irene!!

By the way, for whatever it is worth, I have sold nothing in the past 12 months except for rebalancing purposes and remain fully invested as always. Market timing is much too difficult a job for me to pursue. My annualized return over the past several years has been 7 per cent but I do not expect this to be sustained in the slow growth years ahead but, heh, you never know.
 
#32 ·
Geez, the ongoing mess in Europe makes predicting market futures basically a game of darts.

As I have said many times, the European Debt problem is something that even God him or her self could not resolve and it is going to go on for many years.

What then does that mean for the growth of the markets for the next ten or twenty years let alone for the balance of this year?

Since I believe that we are in for a decade or two of anemic growth, I'll pick option 2--up between 1 and 5 per cent and likely around 2 per cent not only this year but for many years to come. That said, we still have quite a hole to crawl out of if we are going to finish this year in positive territory.
 
#34 ·
Emotions/data is changing every day, I don't have a reliable way to forecast what could happen 5 months from now. Take today for example, consumer confidence at a 28 month low. That should have caused a sharp selloff right? We didn't even stay in triple digit territory, the market shrugged it off and we were positive again by noon. This makes the next move down even more scary than I thought. Not going to bother guessing the cause of the next selloff, but I'm setting my new top target between SP500 1230-1240.
 
This is an older thread, you may not receive a response, and could be reviving an old thread. Please consider creating a new thread.
Top